Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

With an atmospheric river continuing to funnel moisture into our region, dangerous avalanche conditions will persist on Tuesday. You can easily trigger avalanches in wet saturated snow. Avoid steep terrain and don't linger beneath large avalanche paths. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy rain with warm temperatures will continue, and it will remain easy to trigger wet avalanches. Many places in the east south zone have little snow, and most avalanches will probably be small. But at higher elevations near the crest, especially in areas near Chinook Pass and Bumping Lake, avalanches may be large enough to bury or kill you, and even small avalanches can be dangerous in consequential terrain. If you find you are sinking deeply into wet, heavy snow or observe natural small wet avalanches and rollerballs, it is best to stick to low-angle slopes. Use caution and don't linger beneath steep terrain where you could be caught in an avalanche from above.

    (1/10/2022)

    Example of a small Wet Loose avalanche on a cut bank that occurred.

    Photo: Andrew Kiefer

Avalanche Discussion

Up to 1-3 inches of heavy rain fell on Sunday and Monday, and the atmospheric river will continue to pump moisture into the region through Tuesday. While a shallow snowpack and a widespread natural avalanche cycle on Monday may limit the extent of avalanche activity, it will be important to observe the snow surface as you travel. Also, look for signs of instability, such as recent avalanches or rollerballs. You may find isolated areas at the highest elevations that still have dry snow. If you venture into these alpine zones, change your mindset to dry snow problems and look for shooting cracks or collapsing and use quick hand pits to observe how the new snow is bonding with the underlying surface. Even small avalanches can be deadly if you get carried into obstacles such as rocks, trees, or open creeks. 

Most of the east south zone suffers from inconsistent and low snow cover. NWAC forecasters on Manastash Ridge Thursday and near Rimrock Lake (Hwy 12) Tuesday found only a dusting of snow at mid and lower elevations. The prolonged dry and warm weather of January and February really took a toll on the snowpack. Much of the snow melted back to bare ground at lower elevations, making access challenging in some parts of the zone. Similarly, shallow spots in the snowpack on more southerly slopes and near ridges shrunk, exposing rocks, trees, and dirt. Fortunately, the snowpack increases dramatically as you ascend in elevation on more shaded terrain. With this variability, it will be important to observe recent snow depth as you travel and maybe look to the West South forecast if you are traveling close to the crest. 

Regions covered