Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist as an intense storm brings large amounts of water overnight and during the day. Avoid all areas of avalanche terrain on Monday, including flat or lower angle areas beneath large avalanche paths. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    High avalanche danger exists on all slopes loaded with over a foot of new snow.  Areas where wind drifted the snow into thicker slabs are more prone to sliding.  Sunday night 1.5 inches of water is forecasted to fall, which might mean over a foot of snow at upper elevations, on top of the foot we received Saturday night and Sunday. During the day 2 or more inches of water will fall, maybe around 2 feet of snow at upper elevations. Meanwhile, many areas will see strong winds influencing the snow.  

    Monday is a day to avoid avalanche terrain, as very large avalanches could run from above, even into below treeline areas. Natural and human-triggered storm slabs are more likely during periods of intense snowfall and rising snow levels.  Don’t ignore obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks, whumphs, or recent avalanche activity.  Approach any steep slope with caution and remain aware of terrain above you. 

    (2/26/2022)

    This slab avalanche was triggered by a skier in Snoqualmie Pass, with similar conditions, over the weekend. Multiple avalanche triggers showed that the snowpack was inching toward a tipping point. That point should be exceeded over the next 48 hours.

    Photo: Public Observation

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Expect an increase in wet loose avalanches as temperatures creep up throughout the day. Freezing levels are forecasted to rise to 6500ft by the evening. Rain will quickly compress the new snow, in addition to making surfaces moist. It will affect the top couple inches of snow, or much deeper at lower elevations. 

    Depending on your elevation and what time of day it is, you will find varying amounts of the wet loose avalanche problem running in the moist snow. First thing, it will exist at lower elevations, but as temperatures warm you'll notice snow getting heavier and rollerballs starting to kick off at higher elevations. This is another reason to avoid steep slopes and the areas beneath them on Monday. 

    (2/27/2022)

    Rollerballs and small point release initiating off trees and other vegetation. These are the first indicators of wet loose avalanches before they may get bigger.

    Photo: Andrew Kiefer

Avalanche Discussion

Areas that are more wind affected are more likely to avalanche, however with this much snow your best bet is to avoid all steep slopes and the areas beneath them.  Weak snow surfaces could exist beneath Saturday night's snowfall. Strong winds leading into the storm may have destroyed some of these weak layers, but they might still exist in sheltered areas. Another 2 - 4 inches of water, strong winds, and increasing temperatures could swing the avalanche danger extensively in the next 24 hours. A lot of uncertainty exists with the weather factors driving this storm, so it's best to play it safe and stay out of avalanche terrain while the storm dumps. Stick to lower angle slopes where you can still have a good time. 

Regions covered