Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
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Highlights

New snow, rain, and shifting winds will increase avalanche danger throughout the day above 4000ft in elevation. Look out for rainfall in the middle of the day which could create a large wet avalanche on steep snow slopes. In the afternoon and evening, watch for blowing, wind-transported snow on easterly aspects where it is possible to trigger an avalanche large enough to bury a person.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs are likely to be an increasing hazard during the later half of the day. As any midday rain turns back to snowfall and winds shift back to westerly, it will be possible to encounter large wind slabs building on easterly aspects. The size and sensitivity of these forming slabs will depend on the persistence of cold temperatures and snowfall at the upper elevations. Evaluating precipitation type, rate of accumulation, and wind transport will allow you to identify the severity of this avalanche problem. Watch out for high rates of snowfall, blowing snow, areas of cold/soft snow, and cracking underfoot to avoid this problem.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Old slabs from the weekend on northeast through south aspects may be subject to periods of rain during the day today, which may decrease their strength and could avalanche from the weight of a person. If these slabs are subject to prolonged rain, the likelihood of these avalanches will increase. If precipitation continues as snow, the likelihood of this problem will decrease. Evaluate warming and rainfall amounts to identify the severity of this problem.

Avalanche Discussion

Mixed precipitation driven by elevation and temperature, a shifting wind pattern, and unsettled snow from the weekend’s storm allow for significant variability in avalanche conditions and slab formation today. Discrepancies between weather forecasts increase our level of uncertainty around the amount of snowfall and the timing of warming/cooling and wind shifts. 

In a scenario where temperatures at middle and upper elevations stay below freezing longer, expect a longer duration of intense snowfall with lighter density snow that is easier for the wind to transport and form into wind slabs. The amount of dry snow in the “fetch” (which will depend on morning snowfall totals), will be a significant contributing factor in how large these slabs could become. 

In a scenario where temperatures are warmer and there is a longer duration of midday rainfall, there may be a decrease in wind slab formation and likelihood, but an increase in wet avalanche problems. Rain on snow can drastically increase the potential for loose wet avalanches as well as wet slab avalanches, which were found to be reactive in Tuckerman Ravine yesterday. Though these old slabs have likely settled and stabilized since yesterday, the addition of significant rain will increase the potential for them to become reactive again.

With lots of uncertainty surrounding the weather and avalanche forecast, it is critical to make constant weather and snow assessments and incorporate them into the decision making process if traveling in the mountains today. 

Springtime hazards are active and ever-changing with the onset of spring. If you are in the mountains today be watching for: 

Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations.

  • The John Sherburne Ski Trail is closed ½ way down from the top at the fifth cut-over.  Please cross over to the Tuckerman Ravine trail at the yellow rope and walk down the hiking trail.
  • The Harvard Cabin is closed for the season.

The Lion Head Summer Trail remains closed for the season due to avalanche risk. The Lion Head Winter Route is open.

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