Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Strong easterly winds will increase the chances of natural and human-triggered avalanches at upper elevations. These may be up to a foot deep, and they will be most likely to be found in steep terrain below ridgelines, convex rolls, and loaded gullies. There is also a much smaller chance of triggering a much bigger avalanche 3 to 5 feet deep or deeper on weak snow buried near the bottom of the snowpack. This type of avalanche is unlikely, but the poor setup exists across most of the Summit Lake zone.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The weak snow buried deep in the Summit Lake snowpack hasn't gone anywhere. There are multiple stubborn weak layers in the bottom half of the snowpack, and although we're not expecting to see much activity on these layers it is still playing into our terrain choices. You would need to find just the right spot to trigger this type of avalanche, but if you do it will be big. Areas with a thinner snowpack are more dangerous than areas with a thicker snowpack since the weak layers tend to be more developed and the weight of a person has a bigger impact. This can be really difficult to assess as you travel, so for now we're avoiding big and consequential terrain.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The wind is expected to pick up today, and this will make a fresh round of reactive wind slabs at upper elevations. These could be 1 to 2 feet deep, and they will be forming on top of a weak layer that is buried just below the surface. This increases the chances of natural and human-triggered avalanches. The most dangerous terrain will be at higher elevations below ridgelines, in steep gullies, and below convex rollovers. Look for better surface conditions and a more stable snowpack in terrain that has remained sheltered from the wind.

    Glide avalanches: Glide cracks are still on the move, and we still don't know when they will release. These avalanches are very large and very unpredictable. The only way to manage them is to avoid spending time under open glide cracks.

    (3/2/2025)

    Predicted snow totals from Sunday morning through Monday morning. We're not expecting much for the Summit Lake zone, but the winds are enough of a concern to avoid steep alpine terrain today.

    Photo: Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center

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