Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Uncertainty about the snowpack remains elevated, and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above and near treeline. Avoid steep slopes where wind-drifted snow has created fresh slabs. Human-triggered wind slab avalanches on NW-N-NE-E aspects have the potential to "step down" into deeply buried weak layers, triggering larger avalanches. 

Coverage has improved, but rock or log strikes will be possible, especially on W, SW, S, and SE aspects. 

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Generally southwesterly winds pushed snow around yesterday and last night. Winds are expected to be northwesterly today. Drifting snow will create dense slabs over softer snow. Expect to find thick wind slabs on the leeward side of ridges or in cross-loaded gullies. Wind Slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow. Blowing snow and cracking or collapsing in drifted snow are warning signs of the problem. Wind Slabs can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas. The force of a wind slab avalanche may "step down", triggering failures in deeper, persistent weak layers above and near treeline on NW-N-NE-E aspects. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    KPAC has yet to observe a definitive persistent slab avalanche this season, but persistent weak faceted layers (basal facets and depth hoar) are in the lower ~1/4 of the snowpack. Instability tests have not produced consistent propagating fractures in these layers in nearly two weeks. However, new snow and wind drifted snow are creating larger and more cohesive slabs, possibly pushing the weak layers to the point of failure. 

    On Thursday, March 13, KPAC observed some reactivity in an older (days old) wind slab near treeline, on a northerly slope (see pit below). The wind slab rested on a softer layer containing small near surface facets (NSF). This old wind slab over NSF layer combination was not extensive across the slope, but it may exist in other locations. New and drifting snow may push this combination to the brink of failure. 

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday morning AZSB Ski Patrol found very little snowpack failure propagation-potential during their mitigation efforts above treeline. They did report two whumpfs in flat terrain above the Arizona Gondola top terminus. Yesterday around noon, KPAC used binoculars during the short window of fair to good visibility, to view Snowslide Canyon, Humphreys Cirque, Dunham Canyon, Beard Canyon, E-SE slopes of H.C. ridge, and Doyle and Fremont Peaks (see the below photo). KPAC did not observe any evidence of slab avalanches. There were some D1 sized sloughs in the steepest terrain above/near treeline. Expect to trigger slough/loose snow avalanches in steep terrain. 

On March 9 and 13, observations indicate a snowpack characterized by poor to fair structure, moderate to high strength, and no tendency to propagate failures. Rapid changes over the last 42 hours are altering these characteristics. With  3" to 4" of snow water equivalent added to the near treeline snowpack,  KPAC suspects that new snow and wind slabs are pushing the snowpack close to the brink of failure. Uncertainty about the backcountry snowpack is significantly elevated, and KPAC recommends careful snowpack assessment, conservative decision making, and avoiding wind loaded slopes. It's spring break weekend and many backcountry powder hounds have yet to taste the goods during the dry and warm winter. Thoroughly assessing the snowpack of your entire route before committing to avalanche terrain will be key this weekend. 

Lack of snow and warm weather for much of the season means plenty of rocks and logs just under the new snow, especially on W, SW, S, and SE aspects. Lower elevations and previously wind-scoured slopes above treeline will have thin spots. 

If you get out, please submit your observations or email us at [email protected]. 

KPAC has documented evidence of four avalanches this season - Avalanche Database.  

Regions covered