Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wind slabs up to a foot deep will continue to grow today and will be easy to trigger as winds increase in the afternoon at upper elevations. Triggering a larger avalanche on a layer of buried facets near the ground is unlikely but still a concern above 2,500’. Careful snow evaluation and conservative objectives will increase your margin of safety.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong overnight winds have created wind slabs up to 1’ deep that will be easy to trigger at upper elevations. Ridgetop winds from the east are expected to increase to 30+ mph in the afternoon. If these winds arrive sooner fresh wind slabs will be forming on slopes being loaded with wind blown snow. Wind slabs may be easier to trigger and propagate more widely than expected as well as occur on lower angle slopes where a layer of surface hoard is buried.  

    Watch for active wind loading. Shooting cracks and snow that feels stiff underneath you are good indicators you are traveling on a wind slab. Yesterday, a skier triggered a wind slab avalanche on Tenderfoot which is a bullseye clue that wind slabs will be reactive today. Terrain features that start mellow then “rollover” and become steeper as well as gullies are likely places where wind slabs exist. Sheltered slopes that are protected from the wind will be a safer option and likely have softer snow. 

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    There is still an unlikely chance a person could trigger an avalanche above 2,500’ on a layer of weak snow buried close to the ground. This will be easier to trigger where the snowpack is thin like near rock exposed ridges. There are also thin spots on a slope that are impossible to find meaning we have no idea where they are. That is what makes this problem so tricky. The safest option is to stick to slopes under 30 degrees.

    Glide Avalanches: Glide cracks are still opening and could release into a glide avalanche at any time. Look for these on slopes above you and try to avoid them whenever possible.

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