Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Multiple inches of water moving through the snowpack has set the stage for continued large or even very large natural avalanche activity. Avalanches originating at middle or upper elevations could run to valley flats, even at lower elevations. All varieties of unpredictable wet avalanche are on the table, including slabs, deeply entraining point releases, cornice fall, and glides.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Although the lower elevations are likely draining water, forming runnels, and healing, middle and upper elevations are still very much in transition - and that means that large to very large, destructive wet avalanches remain likely for these elevations. The rain to snow transition in most of this zone occurred on Sunday, and at upper elevations, that transition continues into Monday night. The result is that we're not very far past peak danger even by Tuesday.

    Wet avalanches that aren't the small wet loose variety are, by and large, highly unpredictable: You never know when they are going to release. Increased warmth on Tuesday continues to strain sagging cornices which may fail, triggering large and destructive avalanches on the slopes beneath them. Water continues to move along bedrock slopes, releasing glide avalanches without warning. Wet slabs will be the largest of them all and as all the recent rain moves deeper into the snowpack, it may pool and lubricate a crust, initiating the largest avalanches on Tuesday.

    Unfortunately, we don't have great travel advice to help you safely navigate terrain on or beneath slopes 35 and steeper. The risk remains too high for recommending travel on these slopes until we get a good overnight refreeze. Try to keep a buffer between yourself and slopes 35 degrees and steeper. If you choose to travel beneath large avalanche paths, travel through this area quickly. Very large avalanches could extend from steep upper or middle elevation start zones down into below-treeline areas, so make sure to recognize when you are in connected terrain.

     

    (3/24/2025)

    Photo: Very large natural avalanche running to lower elevations at Granite Mountain (Snoqualmie Pass zone).

Avalanche Discussion

The entire snowpack is experiencing rapid change with all the water that we've received since Sunday.  That transition continues to play out at varying paces in different elevation bands. Middle and upper elevations hung on to wet snow on Sunday, while only upper elevations remained wet snow on Monday and we're expecting the transition to occur at these elevations Monday night. The Granite Falls weather station has picked up more than 6" of water equivalent in the last 5 days. The last couple of weeks have been riddled with human-triggered avalanches, partial burials, and a few unexpectedly more stable days that have for the most part, caught us by surprise in neighboring zones. Some of the active days resulted in large (D2) avalanches being triggered, whereas at other times we predominantly had reports of several small (D1) avalanches. 

Recent West Central observations include THIS one from Lake Serene on Saturday, with an abundance of recent avalanches visible, and THIS trip I took last week, when I triggered many small slab avalanches in the Highway 2 corridor.

Temperatures will continue to increase through Tuesday, although we're through with the bulk of the precipitation by Monday evening. Wet avalanche problems will linger until we get a solid freeze overnight refreeze, likely late this coming week.

Regions covered