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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2014–Jan 16th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Warm temperatures and sunny days during this chinook may reduce stability on some slopes. Watch for overhead cornice concerns.  The recent wind slabs need to be carefully evaluated as there is great variability in location and thickness. 

Weather Forecast

The strong westerly flow kicks in again early Tuesday. Little in the way of snowfall is expected. Freezing level may rise to 1700 meters later in the week. With the warm temperatures and sunny skies watch for terrain under recently loaded cornices.

Snowpack Summary

25cm of snow over the weekend and into Monday with a strong westerly flow have created storm slab and wind slabs. Triggering is possible in steep unsupported terrain. Deeper instabilities that we have been tracking previously are showing signs of been less of an issue in most areas with improved bridging above. Watch suspect shallower areas.

Avalanche Summary

During the storm Friday and Saturday avalanches to size 2.5 have been observed from north and east aspects initiated from steep terrain above. Cornice development during this warm storm has been significant. 

Confidence

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.