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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2016–Jan 6th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Low hazard does not mean no hazard. Although triggering is unlikely, a persistent weak layer of buried Surface Hoar should be on your radar. As always, wear a transceiver, shovel and probe if venturing into avalanche terrain.

Weather Forecast

An intense upper ridge and associated warm air aloft have moved away to the NE, but a surface ridge persists until midweek, deflecting large systems away. Moderate to strong SW winds for tonight, easing early tomorrow. Mostly mild & cloudy weather this week, with very occasional flurries possible. Temperatures may be above 0 in town Monday night.

Snowpack Summary

Surfaces are affected by sun/wind in exposed areas.  Small, difficult-to-trigger wind slabs sit in immediate lees on N and E aspect, and are more of a concern in the far East of the park. A surface hoar layer is down 40-60cm in some treeline & alpine locations, and a weak crust is down 80-100cm. These have produced sudden results in snowpack tests.

Avalanche Summary

Small, isolated Loose Wet avalanches were observed on steep solar aspects on Jan 1, associated with a warm layer of air aloft that has since moved on. 

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.