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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 11th, 2019–Dec 12th, 2019

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Ongoing heavy snowfall and strong winds will mean that avalanches are likely today at upper elevations. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - Snow mixed with rain, heavy at times, 25-35 cm / southwest winds, 40-60 km/h / alpine low temperature near 0 / freezing level 800 m

THURSDAY - Snow, 15-20 cm / west winds 40-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near +1 / freezing level 1200 m

FRIDAY - mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, 5 cm / southwest winds, 10-20 km/h / alpine high temperature near 0 / freezing level 1000 m

SATURDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods / light southwest winds / alpine high temperature near -1 / freezing level 800 m

Avalanche Summary

Strong winds and potentially up to 50 cm of new snow by the end of the day on Thursday will mean that storm slabs will be forming at upper elevations, and will probably become more reactive throughout the day. Pay attention to treeline areas as well, as there may be enough snow for avalanches now. 

Snowpack Summary

25-35 cm of new snow from Wednesday night likely sits on weak surface hoar crystals in many locations. With another 15-20 cm forecast to fall throughout the day, total new snow amounts could reach 40-55 cm by the end of the day on Thursday. The rain/snow line is expected to be between 600-800 m. Strong southwest winds are expected to redistribute the new snow and form reactive storm slabs. The new snow sits on a very thin snowpack of about 30 cm at 1500 m in the North Shore mountains.  

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.