Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Small and large wind slab avalanches will be possible to trigger on steep leeward west, north, and east aspects beneath terrain features that encourage drifting. These avalanches will be most consequential above treeline. Careful route finding and snowpack evaluation is required. Reduce your risk by traveling on scoured surfaces and avoiding slopes that display signs of wind effect.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Dry-loose avalanches are more about slough management and hold less of a threat of being buried, and more of a threat of being swept off your feet and dragged through or into consequential terrain. This occurrence will only be possible in extreme terrain involving narrow chutes, gullies, cliffs, and pillows. If you do find yourself being bombarded by dry-loose snow, your best defense is to try and ride out of the moving flow, or simply stop and let the slough move past you.

    Credit: Univ of British Columbia

    Example of dry loose avalanches

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Winds have blown at critical speeds for wind slab formation over the last 24 hours, averaging a speed of 14 mph, with a predominant south-southwest direction. New and old snow remains available for transport. Today, winds may continue to craft and add to the development and sensitivity of existing slabs. This problem exists on all north and east aspects, with south and west slopes subjected to cross-loading. In many areas, these slabs are reaching thicknesses of two feet or more in depth, and hold soft and hard slab characteristics. The sensitivity of said slabs will be most present anywhere experiencing active wind loading or in steep, shady convex terrain. Areas of concern will be identifiable by wind effected surfaces, large cornice's, and hard and soft slabs of surface snow displaying cohesive properties. Wind lips and shallow slabs have proven to be reactive on and below ridgelines and convex terrain features. Expect to encounter denser and more deadly wind slabs the higher you travel in elevation. The cold temperatures and lack of sun have helped preserve sensitivities and instabilities within the snow surface. Today will be fairly similar, and the chance of encountering a consequential wind slab in avalanche terrain remains possible. How you choose to manage the terrain is how you choose to manage the risk of this problem. Identify, discuss, and implement travel techniques to avoid and lower the chance of being caught unaware. 

    (2/14/2024)

    A representative image of where and what to expect today. 

    Photo: Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's field observation reveled five inches of dry new snow, with active wind loading occurring near treeline. Find out more HERE.  

The end of this epic storm system is in sight and is leaving the region with over 30 inches of new snow and 2.78 inches of SWE. Enjoy it while you can, as conditions can change fast. That being said, above treeline has not been witnessed by any of the forecasters since before February 28th. A large amount of uncertainty remains about the extent of wind effect and the sensitivity and distribution of wind slabs. Please, if you venture into the alpine, tread cautiously and be ready to self-assess. It's likely recent avalanches have occurred, and others may be waiting for a trigger. Warmer weather developing later in the week and will greatly aid in the stabilization of the snowpack. Time is needed before stepping out.

Weather station current snow depths (in inches):

Old Ski Bowl: 179

Castle Lake: 123

Mt. Eddy: 137

Callahan: 93

Sand Flat: 120

The Everitt Memorial Highway and Castle Lake roads remain closed. The timeframe for opening it still unknown.  Alternative access points include McBride Springs, the Nordic Center, Mount Shasta Ski Park, and Pilgrim and Deer Mountain OSV parks. You can ride a snow machine from FSR 31 road (Old McCloud) up to Old Ski Bowl. Please stay in boundaries. Here's a map of the riding boundaries for the Southside of Mount Shasta.

Regions covered