It remains possible to trigger a very large persistent slab avalanche breaking 2-6' deep in the snowpack. Fresh snow has created storm slab instabilities. Staying off slopes steeper than 30 degrees is advised to avoid triggering an avalanche.
This forecast is sponsored by The Trailhead - Baker City.
Despite the warm weather and rain, poor snowpack structure still exists. The possibility of triggering a persistent slab avalanche is still a very real one. The slab of snow sitting above the weak layers has gotten more dense due to recent weather. Triggering an avalanche would have serious consequences. If you want to avoid avalanches you should stay off of slopes greater than 30 degrees.
2-4" of fresh snow sits on a melt-freeze crust from the prolonged period of warm weather and rain that ended 2/1. Small storm slabs are possible in the near and above treeline terrain. If you are riding terrain steep enough for a storm slab avalanche, you are also in persistent slab country. These overlapping avalanche problems make avoiding terrain steeper than 30 degrees the best course of action.
(1/11/2024) Photo: Caleb Merrill
While snowfall totals in the Elkhorns are not huge, there is enough new snow to create new snow instabilities. Storm slab and dry loose avalanches are out there. This new snow may also obscure pockets of more dense wind-affected snow around ridge tops. This new snow sits on a melt-freeze crust that formed 2/1. This crust would create a nice sliding surface for a slide that got moving. Terrain steep enough for a new snow avalanche is also steep enough for a persistent slab avalanche All these factors make for a complex environment to travel through. When the complexity and consequences are high it's best to keep it simple and choose terrain less than 30 degrees.
The past two weeks have been warm and the mountains have received some rain. Large wet slides have been observed. This has changed and consolidated the snowpack. While the overall stability trend is headed in a good direction it is still possible to trigger a very large avalanche breaking 2-6' deep. The poor snowpack structure still exists. Continued vigilance is necessary to avoid getting caught in a powerful destructive avalanche.
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