Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 9 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche has become unlikely on a regional scale; however, some unstable snow may still exist in isolated areas due to lingering persistent slab issues.  Avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations. Investigate the snowpack and determine if the area you want to travel in is one of those isolated places where the persistent slab problem may still linger. If so or if you don't have enough data for a clear answer, chose a different area. 

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    Triggering a persistent slab avalanche has become unlikely in most areas. While this weak layer may still exist on some NW-N-NE aspects and maybe some E aspects in near and below treeline terrain, observations indicate that it seems to be gaining strength. In areas where it was wet it is slowly refreezing and in other areas where it remained dry, it is slowly adjusting to the current load above it. Just because persistent slabs have become unlikely in most areas does not mean that triggering a persistent slab avalanche is impossible. Unstable persistent slabs that the additional weight of a person could trigger could still exist on some isolated terrain features. Open slopes sheltered from this winter's NE winds represent the best places to find lingering instability. More complex terrain like sheltered, shady couloirs, steep rocky slopes, or slopes with steep convex roll-overs where the persistent weak layer remains weak could also be suspect. 

    Tools like quick snowpit tests, handpits, and probing can help identify those isolated areas where the persistent weak layer may still exist. Avoiding those isolated areas where instability may linger and slopes connected to those areas still remains a prudent choice. If one of these isolated areas were to release, it could release above the person who triggers it and it may not release until that trigger fully commits to the slope. This weak layer is more likely to exist in the mid to lower part of a slope and so evaluating the slope from the traditional start zone at the top of a slope may not provide a meaningful or accurate assessment. 

Avalanche Discussion

* Snowpit tests from the Elephants Back area yesterday revealed unstable results on 2 isolated true north aspects where the old facet layer still remained weak. Data and observations from other aspects and a variety of elevations did not reveal any other signs of instability. Other isolated unstable test results have occurred near Slab Cliffs (Mount Rose area) and on Castle Peak (Donner Summit area) earlier this week. 

* Observations earlier this week targeting the persistent weak layer of loose weak snow on Red Lake Peak (Carson Pass area) and on Rubicon Peak and Peak 9,269' (West Shore Tahoe area) indicated that this layer and the overall snowpack continue to gain strength.

* NW-N-NE aspects above 8,000' in the Mt. Rose area and along the Sierra Crest north of Emerald Bay hold the best coverage at 2 to 4+ feet. Overall less snow cover exists south of Emerald Bay. Areas of decent coverage exist above 8,300' on NW-N-NE aspects in the Carson Pass area.  Coverage decreases dramatically on all other aspects.

Regions covered