Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
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Highlights

New snow, high winds, and warming temperatures make it possible for a person to trigger a large avalanche. Steep, east-facing and south-facing snow slopes above 4000ft pose the greatest avalanche risk today. Watch out for areas of deeper soft snow, cracking, and rapidly warming temperatures, which are indications that an avalanche could occur.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and high winds have created 1-2 ft thick wind slabs on steep easterly and southerly aspects. Smooth, attractive areas of new snow may be reactive and sensitive to the weight of a person and have the potential to propagate into an avalanche that is large enough to bury a person. Expect to find weakness within the slab, above the old snow surface where lighter density snow from Friday’s storm is sitting below denser, wind-drifted snow. Carefully and routinely evaluate snow before committing to a slope and watch out for cracking under your skis or feet, which is a sign that this problem exists.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As temperatures warm throughout the morning with the addition of strong solar radiation, expect rapid warming to quickly turn wind slabs into wet slabs. These slabs are 1-2 ft thick and these avalanches would be large enough to bury a person. With the onset of warming conditions, do not rule out the potential for a naturally occurring avalanche, especially on south or southeast-facing slopes. Slopes of greatest concern include Sluice, The Lip, and Right Gully. Signs of this avalanche problem include roller balls, loose wet sluffs, and active melting/dripping.

Avalanche Discussion

6-8 inches of new snow in the past 48 hours, increasing winds, and warming temperatures will create dynamic avalanche hazards today. Dry, colder conditions in the morning hours will transition to warm conditions with above freezing temperatures and lots of solar radiation by mid-day or late morning. As this warming occurs, expect a change in slab and snow behavior. Dry, softer snow will become heavier and increasingly saturated with water leading to a deterioration of the weak layer within the snowpack as the dry slabs become wet slabs. There is uncertainty around the exact timing of this process, so constant evaluation of snow conditions and temperatures will help mitigate some of the hazard today. 

Yesterday, variable conditions and new snow distribution was found in Tuckerman Ravine, with the deepest accumulations of snow on south and southeast-facing slopes. A strong-under-weak snowpack was found in many areas with isolated areas in lee terrain where slab formation had begun. Overnight, the slab building process continued with increased winds and 1-3 inches of additional new snow. 

In addition to the wind slab and wet slab problems listed in today’s forecast, it will be likely to find conditions for loose wet avalanches in many areas. Usually these avalanches are relatively inconsequential, however they can be surprisingly powerful and have the ability to cause a loss of balance or a fall in consequential terrain. Expect to find this wet sluffing as the surface snow becomes warm and saturated. 

Springtime hazards are active and ever-changing with the onset of spring. If you are in the mountains today be watching for: 

Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations.

  • The John Sherburne Ski Trail is closed ½ way down from the top at the fifth cut-over.  Please cross over to the Tuckerman Ravine trail at the yellow rope and walk down the hiking trail.
  • The Harvard Cabin is closed for the season.

The Lion Head Summer Trail remains closed for the season due to avalanche risk. The Lion Head Winter Route is open.

Regions covered