Northern New Mexico

You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche on steep terrain where you find cohesive slabs on top of weak faceted and depth hoar snow below. The most dangerous slopes exist at upper elevations on northerly and east aspects, and in many cases are also the most enticing to ski or ride.  Take the time to dig a quick pit to assess if this strong over weak snowpack structure exists, or stick to slopes less than 35 degrees.    

Unseasonably warm temperatures approaching 50 degrees combined with intense sunshine will rapidly warm slopes and bring a threat for wet snow avalanches on our solar aspects today.  Our weak layers aren't far from the surface in a lot of cases, and the intense heat will cause melt water to percolate down and lubricate them, increasing the risk of wet slab avalanches.  Pay close attention to slopes that are in the direct sunlight and watch for wet gloppy snow, roller balls, or pinwheels as these are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet and it's time to head to a shadier aspect.

March looks to welcome us in with more spring-like weather.  Today will be another heater of a day with blue, sunny skies and light winds before more unstable and generally windy weather heads our way over the next week.  The big change in our messaging today is the potential for wet slab avalanches.  We observed several natural wet loose avalanches on solar aspects earlier this week when we had record breaking temperatures but haven't seen any wet slab activity yet.  This could definitely change today as we saw only a mild refreeze last night and are expecting temperatures to climb rapidly into the upper 40s today.  Our weak layers - which include faceted crusts and depth hoar - are very close to the surface on solar aspects, and it will be easy for water to percolate down and lubricate them with this level of heat and radiation.  If you're planning to get out today, it's a good idea to go early and stay well ahead of the sun.  Sticking to shadier, sheltered terrain is where you'll find the best skiing right now anyway, with some recrystallized powder existing on northerly aspects.

On the whole, this winter has proven to be a difficult one to be riding in the backcountry and today is no exception.  Hopefully most people are getting out on the river, mountain biking, climbing, or ripping groomers and soft moguls inbounds, as skiing and riding conditions remain far less than ideal in the backcountry.  This intense warm-up over the last week has taken a big toll on an already shallow and thin snowpack.  Crusts have thickened on east, west and south aspects that aren't already melted down to bare ground.  Many trailheads have melted out, and there are more rocks exposed and many icy patches along the way to skiing and riding.  You can still find some decent recycled powder on north aspects, but you'll certainly have to do some "depth hoar swimming" to get to it.  At upper elevations, decent coverage exists in areas with a deeper snowpack but that also means playing with our persistent slab problem.   

Slabs near the surface have settled and deteriorated over the last 2 weeks but are still failing with easy force on depth hoar or buried facets in long column tests.  This strong over weak structure is the root of our ongoing persistent slab problem and remains widespread in our snowpack.  It also opens the door for possible wet slab avalanches on solar aspects over the course of another unseasonably hot, sunny day.  Melt water in the upper snowpack doesn't have far to travel before it reaches buried crusts or depth hoar, rapidly destabilizing these weak layers.   (2/28/2025)  Photo: Andy Bond

Well-developed, widespread weak layers of faceted crusts and depth hoar that formed during the long dry period from November through January haven't gotten the message that it's an early spring here. They continue to remain cold, dry and extremely weak. The widespread cracking and collapsing that we were noticing last week has gradually diminished, but the overall poor snowpack structure of strong over weak continues to exist, especially at upper elevations on northerly and east aspects.  These are also the slopes that have enough snow on them to ski and ride, which forces you into this terrain automatically.  Without a doubt, if we had more users in our mountains, we'd have more reports of human triggered avalanches over the last week. This snowpack is one of the worst setups we've seen this late into the season, and definitely one that isn't trustworthy for getting out onto larger steep slopes.  Expect that the slopes you most want to ride have this strong over weak snowpack structure, and confirm otherwise by digging a quick pit.  You may not get the sure fire signs of instability like cracking and collapsing, so it's defnitely worth digging around in the snowpack to remind yourself that this incredibly weak structure is everywhere.  Sticking a ski or probe pole down into the snow beneath you is a great way to feel around and confirm that this is the case.  There is still a slight chance of remote triggering these kinds of avalanches from adjacent slopes or the flats below.

Wet snow avalanches should also be high on your radar today.  Crusts on the surface will rapidly melt down once the sun hits them and create more potential for wet loose avlanches in the upper snowpack.  However, this melt water will also percolate down into our various weak layers, which aren't far from the surface on solar aspects, increasing the chances of wet slab avalanches today.  These avalanches can sometimes be difficult to predict, but you can think about them similarly to the persistent slab problem.  A strong-over-weak structure generally exists on East and West aspects that are holding snow, and could be further destabilized by today's heat and radiation.  You should be highly suspicious of any slope with this setup today, and your best course of action is to avoid big, open slopes that are receiving direct sunlight.

On the whole, don't expect that because it feels like April, that springtime avalanche conditions exist.  Our persistent weak layers are still in mid-winter form at the moment. There is hope at least in recent model runs for a more active weather pattern over the next couple of weeks.  Moisture right now for the first two systems doesn't look to be overly impressive, bringing more wind than snow. But with a lack of winter this season, any moisture will be greatly appreciated as we start heading towards fire season.