Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Don't be fooled by calm, blue skies. Complex and atypical weak layers within the snowpack are being tested by sizeable weather events, including recent wind loading and rapid warming. Triggering small sluffs of loose wet snow will also become possible as the day progresses. Stick to shaded, wind-sheltered terrain and slopes under 35 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Poor snowpack structure exists on all aspects at middle and upper elevations. This includes layers of buried surface hoar and facets around a crust. Recent strong-extreme winds from the west may have overloaded these weak layers, and the zone will now experience rapid warming on Saturday. 

    This is an atypical snowpack setup that we don't often experience in the WA Cascades, so you can't roll out your typical playbook to recreate with. All steep open terrain is suspect, including moderately treed areas where strong wind has snuck its way in. Avalanches could be triggered from below or next to steep slopes. A change to denser feeling snow underneath your equipment is a good indication that it has been influenced by the wind. Cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanches are also a red flag indication to stay off steep slopes.

    We have uncertainty around this problem due to a lack of observations, so take some time to poke around for more info in the specific area you plan to recreate. You can dig small hand pits and pull on blocks of snow to see how easily overlaying slabs break free from weak snow underneath. Small, steep test slopes or convex features can help gauge the reactivity of the upper snowpack. But given snowpack variability, be cautious about extrapolating your results too broadly. 

    It might be more likely to trigger smaller fresh wind slabs independent of buried weak layers. However, the potential consequences of being caught and carried are the same. You should be concerned about triggering true wind slab avalanches in the same places where you could trigger a larger persistent slab avalanche. 

    (2/26/2026)

    A couple of large, natural avalanches on a leeward slope. Note blowing snow and crowns well below the ridgeline. This likely ran on a weak layer above the 2/7 crust, ~2 feet below the surface. Cutthroat Lake. ESE, 7,000ft

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    This weekend is a return to warm, warm weather. If you notice that you're beginning to sink into moistened snow, or you see fresh rollerballs falling down from cliff bands or your own equipment, mark that as a sign that this problem is turning on. Although avalanches will be small, there are plenty of exposed hazards in the terrain right now that you could be carried over, especially on southerly slopes. Lower elevation terrain, by and large, still does not have enough snow for this problem to be more than unlikely. This warming trend could even play a role in the release of a dry wind or persistent slab avalanche; however, these mechanics are not well understood.

    (2/5/2026)

    Wet loose slides on a sun-exposed slope originating in steep, rocky terrain. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

There is 8-12 inches of snow over weak layers, including the 2/13 buried surface hoar and facets around the 2/7 crust. In some locations, these layers may be easier to identify than others. If you're at lower elevations, there could just be a crust and no weak snow (or any snow!) at all. So far, observations have indicated a slightly stronger snowpack to the west of the zone, however these data points are few and far between. Trying to thread the needle between where it is and isn't more dangerous is ill-advised. We got a taste of what wind loading did to the weak snowpack shortly after the storm earlier in the week, where wind slab avalanches failed within weak snow around Mission Ridge. Some of these avalanches were remotely triggered and propagated widely. More recently, zones bordering East Central have been seeing natural and human triggered avalanches in similar layers.

The most recent East Central observation is from an NWAC Forecaster traveling in the Teanaway on Friday. They found that the buried surface hoar was rounding and healing, but the 2/7 facets were not. They did not get propagation in any snowpit tests. They were able to trigger some longer shooting cracks in wind loaded snow, but these did not release on buried weak layers.

Persistent slabs are tricky to manage in the backcountry, even with the best information, and East Central has very little of it. If you plan to travel close to a neighboring zone, consider reading their forecast to outfit your toolbelt with more information. Ultimately, this problem is likely to stick around for a while, so settle in to finding fun skiing and riding on lower angle slopes while the snowpack heals. Please consider submitting an observation of what you're seeing while you're out.

The snowpack is still thin, particularly in the trees, at lower elevations, and on southerly slopes. Creeks, holes, and logs make routes convoluted or even impassable. Give yourself time to deal with our interminable "early season" conditions, and know that some hazards may be obscured by new snow.

Regions covered