Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A warm storm arrives this morning. Small, human-triggered avalanches are possible in wind-drifted areas in the alpine. At lower elevations, watch for wet snow instabilities as rain makes surfaces soggy. While unlikely, there is also a potential for large avalanches to release on deeper buried weak layers. Carefully evaluate the snowpack before committing to steep terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Numerous small (D1-1.5) wet loose avalanches have been observed in recent days. Another poor refreeze last night and rain today will test the cohesion of the upper snowpack. You are most likely to find wet loose instabilities on steep (>35 degrees) terrain below 9,000 feet, where today's precipitation is expected to fall as rain. 

    Even small wet loose slides can carry you into undesirable terrain like cliffs and gullies. If you observe signs that the snow surface is losing strength, such as sinking into deep wet snow or fresh rollerballs, move to mellower slopes.

    (2/25/2026)

    Natural wet loose activity on the northwest face of Gray Butte. These slides most likely initiated during the storm on 2/24. 

    Photo: Christian Jordan

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Strong southwest winds and a few inches of new snow may form small wind slabs above treeline as the day progresses. Snow levels above 9,000 feet should keep this problem confined to the upper mountain, but watch for slabs near treeline if snow levels are lower than forecast. Any lingering wind slabs from earlier this week are expected to be stubborn today. 

    You are most likely to encounter the problem on steep (>35 degrees) leeward slopes, especially below ridgelines, around rock outcroppings, and in gullies. Watch for blowing snow and pillow-shaped textures to alert you to recently wind-drifted areas, and consider avoiding these slopes. Shooting cracks are a clear sign of unstable snow. Even small avalanches in big terrain can have serious consequences. 

    (2/22/2026)

    A small, skier-triggered wind slab on a wind-drifted feature earlier this week. Pillow-shaped snow on leeward terrain features is a strong indication of a wind slab. 

    Photo: Chris Carr

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    While unlikely, there remains a potential for large avalanches on buried graupel layers. These layers are suspected in two recent large avalanches, including the slide observed on Wednesday in the Old Ski Bowl. Both avalanches released naturally during significant storms, which rapidly loaded the snowpack. Although it is unlikely that a human on skis or a machine would be able to initiate a failure on one of these layers, it would be dangerous given the expected depth (2-3 feet) and wide propagation. 

    Today's warm temperatures and rain will continue to send meltwater through the snowpack. While very challenging to predict, the potential exists for meltwater to pool and weaken these layers to the point of failure. Steep slopes near and above treeline warrant caution. Consider avoiding terrain below cliff bands - locations where graupel may have accumulated. As always, evaluate the consequences before committing to steep terrain. Or, make conservative terrain choices and give the snowpack more time to adjust to the recent load, warm temperatures, and rain.

    Below treeline, warm temperatures over the past three days have allowed the snowpack to settle significantly and for the graupel layers to gain strength. Forecasters will continue to gather information on the sensitivity of these layers near and above treeline in the coming days. 

    (2/25/2026)

    Large natural persistent slab avalanche in the Old Ski Bowl off of Green Butte Ridge. 8,800 feet, east/southeast.

    Photo: Christian Jordan

Regions covered