Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow and strong winds will increase avalanche danger on wind-loaded slopes. Fortunately, this storm will give you plenty of clues to help you anticipate areas you want to avoid. Look for signs such as blowing snow, fresh cornices, and textured surfaces to help you identify problematic slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    New snow accompanied by strong SW winds will build a fresh batch of shallow wind slabs at upper elevations. These slabs may be non-existant or quite shallow at the start of the day, but look for them to grow in size and distribution as the day matures. These slabs could be quite reactive if they form over weak snow surfaces like surface hoar or near-surface facets. You would likely find this set-up on upper elevation, shaded aspects. 

    You’ll find these wind slabs forming on leeward terrain features at upper elevations. Look for visual clues, such as blowing snow or textured surfaces, to help you identify slopes to avoid. Fresh cornices, dunes, and pillow-like slabs are all surface clues that indicate the wind has been at work. Step back and avoid steep, wind-loaded start zones if you notice shooting cracks or recent avalanche activity. 

    You may find more dangerous conditions on the western edges of the zone that receive more than 6 inches of new snow. 

    Blowing snow can help you identify problematic slopes. 

    Photo: Joe Dellaporta

Avalanche Discussion

Finally, some snow in the forecast! You may be stoked to head out Friday, but just be ready for a day of increasing avalanche danger. The start of the morning may be dry, but look for new snow to start piling up as the morning progresses. Strong winds will accompany new snow, which will easily move snow into leeward start zones, resulting in more dangerous avalanche conditions during the afternoon hours. 

We have uncertainty across the east-south due to rough travel conditions and limited observations. Observers in neighboring zones have been finding a common theme of variable travel conditions and some weak surfaces like surface hoar in isolated sheltered areas. So, as new snow starts piling up, don’t just commit to large slopes before doing your own assessment. As you travel, look for signs of instability, such as new snow failing easily or shooting cracks under your feet or sled. 

Your main crux will likely be the challenging travel conditions. This season has offered a rollercoaster of fluctuating freezing levels, rain-on-snow events, and inversions. With that, be ready for a mixed bag of conditions out there. You may find slick, icy surfaces in more exposed alpine areas. On more shaded aspects above 7000 ft, observers in neighboring zones reported dry snow leading up to this past system. So If you find yourself pushing to the high mountains during this period, be ready to complete your own snowpack assessment.

Lower elevations across the east-south have struggled to build a meaningful snowpack this season. As you travel, look for shallowly buried hazards that could ruin the rest of your season. 

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