Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

New snow and very strong winds have created very dangerous avalanche conditions. Large natural avalanches were observed yesterday and human-triggered avalanches are likely.  Some of the avalanches may break widely across slopes and run well into the flats.  Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today. Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees.  Safer places to play will be found in wind-sheltered areas below treeline. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds yesterday out of the W/SW were in the 20 - 40 mph range gusting in the 60 - 70's.  New snow was quickly being drifted and blown around into thicker and stiffer slabs at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features.  These slabs were reactive and sensitive yesterday, able to propagate long distances.  Pay attention to obvious instabilities like shooting cracks off your boards.  Pay attention to obvious wind-drifted pillows and harder firmer snow underfoot.  With such strong winds, you may find loading further down the slopes that you typically see.  Cornices have been growing and may break further back than you might expect if traveling on ridgelines.  Cornices breaking off can also act as a big trigger on a slope.  

     Wind slab avalanches will be dangerous on their own, but can also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.  

    Very strong W/SW winds with this storm drifted snow and rapidly loaded slopes.  East aspects will be incredibly dangerous. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    New snow and slab formation are stressing deeper buried weak layers. Several weak layers currently exist in our snowpack on most aspects.  Near and below treeline had the shallowest and weakest snowpack before this storm, and avalanches here could fail on or near the ground in depth hoar. On solar aspects, there are faceted crusts, Many slopes still have the early January drought layer.  Any persistent slab avalanche would be large to very large,  breaking widely across terrain features, and may be 3 to 5 feet deep. These avalanches most likely would not be survivable.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes to slopes over 30 degrees giving avalanche paths wide berths as you could potentially remotely trigger an avalanche. 

    Several weak layers that exist in the snowpack will be tested and some slopes will reach a tipping point as storm totals stack up.  We expect many avalanches to fail on deeper buried weak layers producing large avalanches. 

    (2/4/2024) Photo: Taos Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday felt apocalyptic at times with intense snowfall and very strong winds.  Storm totals are always difficult to measure with this much wind, but were measured as  10 - 13 inches with 1.85" of snow water equivalent (SWE). The big factor yesterday was the strong to extreme west winds that were rapidly blowing and drifting snow every which way in our Box Canyon area.  Even areas below treeline, had snow drifting and stiffening into slabs.  Today will bring a brief lull with isolated flurries, with a second system pushing into our area tonight bringing another round of snow showers.  West winds will be in the 20's with gusts in the 40's.

Two atmospheric river events have pushed snow totals since February 2nd to 50 inches of snow and 4.3" of SWE. There are still two more systems on their way.  It's been an impressive start to February!

Visibility was not great yesterday, but we did observe a large natural D2 avalanche on a north aspect below treeline early in the morning.  We had been at the top of the start zone the day before, where we had a weak snowpack and shallow overall snowpack, but no results in extended column tests.  This was a factor of not having enough of a slab for propagation.  This storm unlike the early February storm came in with a lot of wind, and slab formation has been more widespread.  Unfortunately, visibility is not great, so we may not know the extent of the natural avalanche cycle, but the avalanches now may be the biggest we've seen all season. We have a perfect setup for avalanches to start within the storm snow and step down into deeper weak layers. These avalanches could be very large and break widely across slopes running into the flats below.   

It's time to dial it back, as we go through this active weather period.  Terrain selection is always the answer when dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Avoiding being on and under slopes over 30 degrees is a great way to stay safe and still have fun while playing in the mountains.  

 

 

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