Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger remains moderate.  It is possible for a skier or rider to trigger a large persistent slab avalanche on steep terrain near and above treeline on north, east and west slopes.  These avalanches can release without warning and would probably be triggered in shallow areas where basal facets are susceptible to the weight of a skier or rider.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The weak layers and basal facets in or near the bottom of the snowpack are still present, in some areas.  On more solar aspects, they are starting to round, and in other, more northerly aspects, they continue to grow. This basal weak layer caused some of the larger slides in the avalanche cycle more than two weeks ago, and stability tests continue to fail on this layer, with ECTs producing propagation in thinner snowpacks.  An avalanche of this type is most likely to be triggered on steep north facing slopes in areas of thinner snowpack.  Although it is unlikely that a skier or rider will trigger this type of avalanche, if they did, the avalanche could be large and easily cause a full burial. 

    (2/19/2024)

    Telescope path went to ground around Feb. 9th 

    Photo: Troy Marino

Avalanche Discussion

Most stability tests and observations show that the snowpack has become increasingly stable and that, overall, the avalanche hazard has decreased.  However, even after two weeks since our last significant snowfall, we are not yet at low danger levels on all aspects and elevations, with snowpit profiles continuing to show signs of instability.  It is challenging to determine the continuity of this problem.  It may be that in some locations, it lacks the consistency to trigger an avalanche, and in others, it may be dormant but could resurrect given another large storm.  And, of course, finally, in some locations, especially steep and rocky zones, there is the chance that it could still be triggered by a skier or rider.  Until more is known about the distribution and reactivity of this problem, or there is a significant change in weather, we are lurking in a period of ambiguity.  Again, this represents the classic low probability but high consequence scenario.

For a more entertaining look at this situation, check out the following chatGPT and forecaster collaboration:

Persistent layers whisper, a moderate threat we speak,Near and above the treeline the dangers are unique.

Triggering an avalanche, an uncommon feat,Yet if set in motion, foresee a quick retreat.

Unexpected and erratic,the avalanche may be,Slim chance, heavy outcomes, the game we see.

In localized terrain, where the snowpack is lean,The trigger points hide, in features unseen.

In general, conditions across the peaks are variable.  The snowpack has settled and melted, and much of the snow is disappearing below the treeline on south facing slopes. Today, a wind advisory has been issued for the San Francisco Peaks and southwest ridgetop gusts are expected to top 50 mph.  Hopefully, this storm will bring some snow that sticks to the mountain, and not all of it will be lifted into the atmosphere.

For recent observations, click here.  

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