Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You can trigger avalanches where the wind forms fresh drifts at upper elevations. Steer around thick pillows of snow on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Check how hard and frozen the upper snowpack is and monitor deeper weak layers for signs of instability.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Plumes of blowing snow and shooting cracks are "red flag" warning signs that you could trigger a wind slab avalanche. You can also look for deeper, drifted areas of snow. You can use a pole or probe to feel the stiffer snow and compare the deeper drifts to wind-sheltered areas. Steer around slopes steeper than 35 degrees where you find these snowpack characteristics. Be aware of cornices and make sure not to travel on them or linger under them. 

    Expect another 1-2" of new snow. Northeast winds should be strong enough to transport new and existing snow through Monday night. Older slabs that formed on the 1st are now difficult to trigger.

    (1/26/2024)

    Wind-sculpted features at upper elevations in the Blue Lake basin.

    Photo: Will Govus

Avalanche Discussion

Depending on how much the skies clear on Tuesday,  you could see moist snow, roller balls, and even small wet avalanches on steep sunny slopes. Washington Pass picked up 2" of snow on Monday with moderate and gusty northeast wind. You can expect winds to taper on Tuesday with another inch of snow. Temperatures will warm, and there's a chance for slight clearing, especially to the east. 

While avalanches on older weak layers are now very unlikely, there's still much uncertainty. Take time to check the old, weak layers (early January facets in the upper 1/3rd of the snowpack and Dec facet/crust in the lower half) to see if they've been transformed by meltwater. Additionally, if you find stout crusts that are at least pencil-hard and 4-6" thick in the upper snowpack, this could be enough to protect the weak layers from the impact of people traveling over snow. If in doubt, continue to keep a wide buffer of terrain between your group and complex terrain and steep, unsupported terrain features.

Conditions are variable. Below 6,000, the snowpack is rain-affected. Above that elevation is a mix of rain effects and, more recently, drier snow. Observers have reported rain runnels and glide cracks up to 7,000ft. Up 10" of dry snow is on the surface in sheltered terrain at upper elevations. 

From January 27 to February 1st roughly 1.75" of water equivalent fell, much of it was rain at low elevations. A widespread cycle of wet avalanches occurred, up to size D3.  At least some appear to have run on old, weak layers. An incomplete tally of the avalanches that we know about includes:

  • Natural wet loose and wet slabs on east to southeast aspects of Cutthroat Peak and Whistler Mtn
  • Multiple natural wet avalanches on west to southwest aspects of Kangaroo Ridge up to size D3
  • Natural wet avalanches in the west fork of Cedar Creek up to size D3.
  • Numerous natural wet avalanches at lower elevations on banks and typical paths that hit Highway 20, including the "Cutthroat paths," just south of Cutthroat Lake Rd. Some ran to the ground.
  • Natural wet slab avalanches, likely running on deeper weak layers on unsupported slopes, on north aspects, 7,400-6,800ft in the Hairpin Valley.
  • A very large persistent slab avalanche was remotely triggered on a west aspect, 6,000ft, Leap Creek (D3, Jan 27th).

 If you're in the mountains, please let us know what you find.

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