Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

20 mph + SW winds Sunday created wind slabs in leeward terrain. The upper 6-12" of snow is soft and can run with you in steep terrain producing dry-loose avalanches.

Use extra caution and good travel protocols in wind-loaded terrain and on slopes steeper than 35 degrees where loose snow could push you over cliffs and into terrain traps like gullies.

Today's advisory is sponsored by Rossignol.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Southwest winds on Sunday were strong enough (18+mph) to push snow around and have likely left slabs that may be sensitive to the weight of a person in leeward terrain. Yesterday we observed a fresh Natural wind slab avalanche that had failed naturally on a North aspect that was around 38 degrees.

    Use extra caution on Northern aspects where slabs are most likely yet you may find some cross-loading or loading in other places as local terrain can influence loading patterns. The only way to know is to look for visual clues such as pillows drifts or etching in the snow.

    If you are seeing red flags like cracking or signs of loading, choose another slope.

    (2/12/2024) Denser snow on the surface from wind effect. 

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    This problem is becoming more unlikely as time and weather settles the snow and is now confined to wind and sun-sheltered steep terrain where loose dry snow still exists. The upper 6-12" of the snowpack is drier and has a layer of graupel and facets that are not bonding great and failed easily Saturday in pits and ski cuts, and from ski turns on slopes steeper than 35 degrees.

    Slough management in steep and confined or consequential terrain is going to be prudent, yet reasonably manageable on most slopes...use caution on steep slopes that are shaded or tilted to the North as the loose dry snow is enough to knock you down and into bad places you would rather avoid.

     

    Wet loose avalanches should remain small (D-1 minus) on solar aspects, use caution on big sustained slopes steeper than 35 degrees that are getting hot from direct sun. If you are pushing rollerballs or seeing fresh signs like rollerballs or point releases around rocks.

     

Avalanche Discussion

Our snowpack has gained a lot of strength and is not producing propagating results below the rain cust about a foot below the surface. Avalanche danger has been manageable and our problems have migrated to the upper 12 inches. This week we may see another inch or more of water, or about a foot of snow, and that may stress the snowpack's upper rain crust that has some facet development just below the crust.

Many people are stepping out into big lines, don't let your guard down, keep the odds in your favor cover the basics, and continue to use good travel protocols like only exposing one person at a time to slopes steeper than 30 degrees, and making sure everyone in your group is wearing a transiever and carrying a shovel and a probe on their person.