Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It remains possible for you to trigger large avalanches that fail 1 to 2 feet deep in wind-loaded terrain. You can reduce your exposure by steering around steep slopes with wind-stiffened surfaces. Wet snow instabilities will become prominent as each day passes, especially during periods of rainfall or extensive sunbreaks. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Triggering hard wind slabs ranging from 1 to 2 ft remains a concerning possibility in this zone. Slabs will become harder to trigger and provide less feedback as we move further from the loading event that formed them.  However, upper elevation winds have been strong enough that I would't fully trust them yet- especially in steep, unsupported, and complex terrain. If they trigger, they could be large and consequential. 

    Look for these slabs near ridges, below cornices, on mid-slope convexities on open slopes. Watch for smooth pillows below ridgelines and cornices as well as on the sides of cross-loaded gullies. Dunes and ripples on the surface are clues the wind has been at work transporting snow. If you feel the snow surface getting stiffer, it's time to pay attention and steer around steep loaded features. 

    Hard wind slabs sound hollow, like a drum, and behave unpredictably; they can break above you and wider than expected. Cracks shooting out from your skis or machine are obvious signs you found an unstable wind slab. 

    While less likely, you could trigger an avalanche that breaks 1-2 ft on a layer of buried surface hoar. So far, the distribution of this weak layer seems isolated, but the resulting avalanche could be large. Dig down and consider doing an ECT before riding a steep, unsupported slope in more sheltered terrain.

    (1/9/2026)

    Signs of recent wind drifting across the slopes of the Superbowl. 

    Photo: Joe Dellaporta

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet snow instabilities will become more prominent and widespread as each day passes and becomes slightly warmer. On Sunday, wet loose instabilities will be more dependent on rainfall rather than clearing skis. If its raining, wet avalanches should be on your mind. When you notice large clumps of snow falling from trees or cliffs and roller balls forming, mark that as a sign that the snowpack is warming and weakening. Pay attention to the terrain around you as sluffs can start in steep terrain above, and carry you into terrain traps below.

    (1/2/2026)

    Small rollerballs show the snow surfaces was a little wet and sticky. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

On Friday, January 9th, four backcountry skiers were caught and carried by a large avalanche while descending near Longs Pass in the Teanaway River drainage. The slide occurred on an S to SE facing slope at approximately 6200ft. One member of the party was not buried. Another teammate was partially buried but injured. The other two individuals were fully buried. During the initial rescue, the team located one of the buried victims, who did not survive. Despite the group's best efforts, they could not pinpoint the fourth member of their team. The party contacted 911 via a satellite device, and Kittitas County Search and Rescue responded to the area on Friday evening. Additional rescue efforts were postponed until daylight. Search and Rescue then returned to the site on Saturday and were joined by NWAC forecasters. The teams were able to locate the remaining victim. Unfortunately, neither of the fully buried skier survived. Our deepest condolences to the family, friends, and community of those involved in this avalanche accident. S-SE aspect, 6200ft, Avg Depth 2ft, HS-AS-R3-D2.5-O

Each day is trending slightly warmer in the East South zone. So far, wet snow instabilities have been slow to materialzie with the exception of steep, solar aspects. These warming-induced avalanche concerns should be more pronounced as freezing levels continue to climb or during periods with rainfall. We suspect these warmer temperatures will also help the old, stiff wind slabs gain strength, but the consequences remain devastating if they fail. These hard wind slabs are tricky business and require patience with careful terrain selection. 

This past week brought 1-2 inches of snow water equvialnet to the East South mountains. This equates to 1-2 ft of recent snow over a crust that was buried on January 3rd. NWAC forecasters found some weaker layers in this new snow around Ahtanum Meadows on January 9th. You can read the full observation here. In summary, the upper snowpack is heavily wind-affected, and snowpack stability is gradually improving as we move past the recent loading event. However, a layer of buried surface hoar was found in the Ahtanum area and may have been the culprit of one widely propagating natural avalanche near the South Fork of the Tieton (observation here). This problem seems isolated, but the resulting avalanche could be wide. 

Despite the new snow, the snowpack remains thin in the eastern mountains. In choosing terrain, consider the consequences of a slide. Look for slopes with a clean runout free of bone-breaking trees, creeks, and rocks. 

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