Avalanche forecast

Intermountain

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is a scary Moderate above 2000 feet and low below.  Triggering an avalanche is becoming more difficult, but is still possible 2-4 feet in depth.  Natural avalanches are unlikely.

A strong rain crust exists below 2500 feet making human triggered avalanches unlikely.   Hazard at low elevation will quickly rise once new snow begins to accumulate in the coming days.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Our #1 concern today is a mid-elevation persistent slab problem focused on the 2,500–3,500' band. Human-triggered avalanches remain possible in isolated areas, with expected slab depths around 2–3 feet. This elevation range has consistently produced the weakest structure in our observations and has been the core of recent natural avalanche activity on Thompson Pass. Over the last week, the slab has settled and gained strength, making it more difficult to trigger. Even so, weak snow still exists beneath a thick, cohesive slab, and if you hit the wrong spot the result could be a large, dangerous avalanche. The problem’s narrow elevation range and the slowly decreasing likelihood of triggering are why we lowered the hazard to Moderate today. Light snowfall is expected this afternoon, but amounts should be too small to meaningfully affect stability.

    Travel advice: pay close attention to when you enter the 2,500–3,500' band and make a deliberate effort to choose simple terrain under 30°. If you decide to step into steeper mid-elevation terrain, manage your exposure: only one person at a time, keep eyes on your partners, maintain clear communication, and avoid terrain traps. Because these slabs are deep and dense, you may not see obvious signs of instability—even when conditions are capable of producing a serious avalanche.

    Deep crown from a natural avalanche that failed in the mid elevation band .  

    Photo: Paul Ramseth

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Above 3,500’, the base of the snowpack is a variable patchwork of old wind slabs sitting over facets (weak, sugary snow). These old wind slabs remain strong and continue to bridge the weak snow near the ground. Observations still show a generally stronger snowpack at upper elevations than at mid elevations, where the basal weak layer is more developed.

    Our concern is that a person could trigger a deep, hard slab avalanche where the wind slab is thinner or absent and the weak layer is closer to the surface.  Right now, this problem appears stubborn and difficult to trigger, and obvious signs of instability may be absent. However, a lack of feedback does not mean the issue is resolved; it often means the weak layer is deeply buried and trigger points are isolated.

    With a pattern change and new snowfall arriving, we are watching this layer closely. Even if sensitivity is low today, additional loading from new snow and wind can increase stress on the base of the snowpack and make this weak layer more reactive. Conditions may shift from “hard to trigger” to “easier to trigger” faster than expected once the new load starts stacking up—especially in areas where the slab is thinner or the weak layer is closer to the surface.

    This problem is expected to have a higher sensitivity and likelihood in the Continental zone.

    (1/23/2026)

    Large connected natural hard slab avalanche associated with our deep persistent weak layer. Mt Dimond north face

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: None observed or reported

Forecast Discussion

Persistent slab avalanche concerns remain our primary issue today. Overall, the setup is best described as low likelihood / high consequence: it’s getting harder to trigger, but any avalanche that does release could be large and dangerous.

Looking ahead, users should expect new avalanche problems to develop over the next couple days. Our area may receive around a foot of new snow by the time our next forecast is published on Wednesday. Expect storm slab problems to develop, along with the potential for a new persistent weak layer to form as new snow buries fragile surface conditions. Surface hoar has been observed on all aspects and across climate zones up to roughly 3,000'. This surface hoar is notable in a few ways. First, it is unusually large, with 2–3 cm feathers observed (more typical would be a few millimeters). Second, it is sitting either directly on a rain crust or on a few inches of snow over a rain crust—an effective bed surface that will limit bonding and keep the surface hoar from mixing into the snow below. Lastly, the layer has remained well preserved, as the past week of clear weather has also been unusually calm for Thompson Pass. Once new snow begins to stack up into a cohesive slab, be prepared for very sensitive storm slabs from sea level to 3,000', especially in wind-loaded areas. Even if conditions feel quiet today, sensitivity can increase quickly once new snow starts adding weight and creating a slab.

 For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections. 

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