Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanches are unlikely but not impossible. Stay alert for small, isolated pockets of wind-drifted snow in the alpine. Other hazards include variable conditions, extreme winds, and icy surfaces with slide-for-life potential. If you plan to travel on steep slopes above treeline, bring an ice axe, crampons, and a helmet, and know how to use them.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    Triggering a small wind slab is unlikely, but not impossible today. A few inches of snow earlier this week, combined with southwest through northwest winds, formed small wind slabs in isolated, exposed areas. Yesterday, northwest winds blew snow across upper elevation ridgelines on Mount Shasta. Elevated southwest winds today may continue to transport light amounts of unconsolidated recent snow. The problem is most likely to be found in extreme terrain above treeline, especially below leeward ridgelines, around rock outcrops, and in gully features.

    While you're unlikely to encounter anything large enough to bury you, slabs with enough volume to knock you off balance are not out of the question. Consider the consequences of even a small avalanche before committing to steep terrain. Stay alert for wind pillows and blowing snow, and be prepared to change your route or objective if you observe signs of unstable snow, like cracking. 

Avalanche Discussion

The upper snowpack showed limited signs of wet surface instabilities yesterday, despite the continued high clouds and unseasonably warm temperatures. Any warming-related instabilities today are expected to be very small in size and limited to isolated, steep terrain features near and below treeline. Even so, seek mellower terrain if you observe signs of unstable, wet surface snow like rollerballs or pinwheels. 

The lack of precipitation for most of January has left skiing and riding conditions in need of a refresh. While winter recreation remains possible in most areas, expect a medley of crusts (sometimes breakable), wind-affected snow, wet snow, corn-like snow, dry snow, frozen ski and sled tracks, and icy surfaces. Shallowly buried and visible obstacles are abundant at lower elevations. Ski and ride with caution. Wind-sheltered slopes near and below treeline hold the smoothest surface conditions. Check out these recent observations from Castle Lake and Gray Butte for more details on the current snowpack. 

Climbing: As always, climbers should keep a close eye on the weather. A winter ascent of Mount Shasta is a very different undertaking compared to the friendlier conditions of spring. Key hazards include firm, icy surfaces that can create slide‑for‑life scenarios, rime icefall, rockfall, negative wind chills, and sudden loss of visibility. Never climb into a whiteout. Carry reliable navigation tools and know how to use them. A full mountaineering kit is essential: 12-point crampons (NOT microspikes), ice axe, and helmet, and the skills to use them proficiently. Have the courage to turn around if things don't feel right. Give us a call if planning your trip feels uncertain. We're happy to talk it through!

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