Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We're forecasted to get a little rain Monday night and less during the day, so avalanche activity may slow a little. A lot of uncertainty still exists. Avoid travel on or under steep slopes with large glide cracks and overhanging cornices while temperatures remain warm. 

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The likelihood of more wet avalanches is trending lower as it's been two days since large amounts of rain fell, and the amount of water working its way through the snowpack decreases. The likelihood of triggering or natural avalanches has decreased enough to bump the danger to moderate. Natural avalanche activity is trending towards unlikely, but it's still definitely not out of the question. If an avalanche occurs, the size and consequence will remain the same - very large, powerful avalanches with thick, wet chunky debris. They are highly unsurvivable. 

    We've had days of wet loose and wet slab avalanche activity, and with the break from the rain and smaller amounts Monday night into Tuesday, we expect these type of avalanches to happen less. Shedding off steep rocky surfaces, falling cornices and occasional other types of wet avalanches may still continue. No matter the avalanche type, the size and consequence will remain the same - very large, powerful avalanches with thick, wet chunky debris. They are highly unsurvivable. Travel and riding conditions are less than desirable, so there isn’t really much reason to head into steep terrain.

    Identify features of concern in the terrain above you like large, gaping glide cracks and cornices. Avoid traveling on or beneath these slopes, and any other steep slopes of question until the snowpack has a chance to drain and temperatures trend more seasonal.

    (1/29/2024)

    Notable cracks were visible all over the north face of Mt Pilchuck on Monday. I wouldn't stand in the basin below these features.

    Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

We are at the point where the natural avalanche cycle is transitioning to what’s informally known as the “shed" - a prolonged period where glide avalanches, wet slabs, and cornices occasionally fall off the mountain with no particular rhyme or reason.  Warm temperatures and occasional rain showers will continue to weaken the bonds holding these unsupported features in place. The only antidote is colder temperatures.

Since warm temperatures began on Friday, there has been nearly 4” of rain. Similar precipitation was seen at Snoqualmie Pass, and Stevens Pass again came in on the low side with less than an inch. Despite the paltry amounts of rain, Stevens still saw natural large wet avalanches. Avalanche control work at Stevens Pass Mountain Resort also produced avalanches that broke into older, deeper layers that have been lingering in the snowpack since late December.  In the neighboring West North zone, numerous D2 and D3 wet avalanches having run long distances, gouged into the ground below the snow, and generally laid waste to the mountains. A few more wet avalanches to D2.5 were triggered with avalanche control work at the Mt. Baker Ski Area. 

There has been a huge loss of snowpack in the last two days, with many stations showing a 20% reduction. Lots of terrain features that are normally filled in now sport bare ground or waterfalls. I did a small reconnaissance mission on the south side of the Mountain Loop Highway on Monday. I was able to drive to over 2000ft, and the mountainsides looked shockingly bare for late January. Highway-level locations that had snow a week ago are now bare.  I spotted many glide cracks and a few slab avalanches on mountains, all indicators that the West Central zone underwent a similar amount of wet activity over the weekend as neighboring zones. 

Regions covered