Avalanche forecast

Intermountain

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Considerable above 2000 feet and moderate below.  Human triggered avalanches are likely 1-2 feet in depth above 2000 feet especially where the wind has moved the new snow into deeper pockets.  Careful route finding and conservative terrain choices will be necessary for safe trave in avalanche terrain today.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Our forecast area received around a foot of snow overnight.  Snow totals appear to be fairly similar across acoss our forecast area along the road with Valdez receiving the higher end at 12 inches, Thompson Pass 8-12 and 46 mile 9 inches.  Winds were blowing from multiple directions overnight with predominate SW-SE winds recorded at the upper elvation Nicks snotel.  Winds on Thompson pass were out of the north during the middle of the night and switched to southerly in the early morning hours.  Expect to find multiple aspects loaded by the wind.  

    This new snow will need time to settle and bond with the underlying snowpack.  In some areas there is a layer of buried surface hoar that is now buried by 18-24 inches of snow.  Where this layer exists expect storm slabs to be more sensitive to human triggers.  Buried surface hoar exists below 4000' in areas that were protected from the strong outflow winds of last weekend.  The strength of winds last weekend would have destroyed this layer in most locations, although is still a concern in very specific areas.  It is likely that areas in close proximity to Thompson Pass will not have buried surface hoar.

    Moderate to strong winds overnight will have created loaded areas where the storm snow is stiffer, deeper and more sensitive to human triggers.  Expect to find instability on wind loaded slopes steeper than 32° , convex terrain and cross loaded gullies.

    Pay attention to the pattern and amount of wind redistribution.  How strong was the wind?  Which slopes are loaded?  Use small incosequential test slopes and hand pits to determine how well the new snow is bonded.  Signs of instablility include shooting cracks, collapsing and natural avalanche activity.

     

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Avalanche Discussion

Our mountains have received 18-24 inches of new snow in the last 72 hours along winds that have been blowing in multiple directions.  This snow has fallen on a generally stable snowpack which should allow the new snow to heal and bond well, but this takes time.  It is likely that unstable snow will exist today on steep wind loaded slopes, convex terrain and crossloaded gullies.

Pay attention to the sensitivity of new snow and the amount of wind redistribution that has occured.  Try to be patient today, use terrain progression as a tool to assess how well the new snow has bonded before jumping into consequential avalanche terrain.

A potentially dangerous layer of surface is now buried by 18-24 inches of new snow in very specific areas.  Where present expect storm slabs to be more sensitive.  See avalanche problem above for distribution.

Regions covered