Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions remain dangerous and difficult to predict. Hard slab avalanches can be triggered in steep terrain. Warming temperatures and periods of direct sun will make these slabs more sensitive in the afternoon. Monitor snow conditions as the day warms and make conservative terrain choices to avoid being caught in a large avalanche. Even small slopes can have harsh consequences if they lead to terrain traps such as gullies, trees, or rocks.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Snowmobilers and skiers can trigger large hard slab avalanches failing on weak snow that formed during December. These slabs are 1-3 feet deep above 9,000’ and about 1 foot deep below that.  Most aspects (shaded and sunny) remain suspect due to the widespread nature of the January 4th persistent weak layer. Slabs could be triggered from a distance, by the first rider, or even wait until the last person in your group is riding the slope to release. In addition, these slabs will become more sensitive to human triggers as temperatures rise today. Steep, rocky, and unsupported terrain features are most likely to produce an avalanche at the moment. However, given the well connected nature of the weak layer, it is possible for avalanches to propagate long distances across slopes. Because of this, avoid terrain that is connected to avalanche paths, beware of what lies above you, and give runout zones a wide margin. Avoid terrain traps such as steep cutbanks and gullies. Even a small avalanche in a terrain trap can have serious consequences. For the time being, riding low angle terrain with little consequence is the best way to mitigate this problem.

    Additional Discussion

    Temperatures at 9,000’ warmed to near freezing yesterday afternoon and stayed warm overnight. Rising temperatures today combined with periods of direct sun will increase the chance for wet loose activity on steep solar slopes. These slides will be small, but have the potential to knock you off your feet or push you into terrain traps like gullies, cliffs, or trees. Warming temperatures will also make persistent slab avalanches more sensitive to human triggers. Monitor snow surfaces as the day warms and consider heading back to the trailhead if you see signs of warming such as natural avalanche activity or loose wet snow.

    (1/20/2024)

    This avalanche depicts the terrain to avoid that is very steep and dangerous. 

    Photo: Matthew Tousignant

Avalanche Discussion

While avalanche events and obvious signs of instability such as collapsing have decreased over time, the snowpack around Togwotee Pass remains weak and unstable. A hard slab now sits on top of weak snow including facets and surface hoar. This is a perfect recipe for human triggered avalanches. Digging down to the weak layer can provide useful information about the snowpack in terrain you wish to ride. However, it is safe to assume that poor snowpack structure exists across the zone and knowing exactly where a trigger point exists is very difficult. Conservative decision making remains important given the size and wide propagating nature of the avalanches that have recently been observed. Give yourself a wide margin today to allow for surprises.

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