Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

SW winds picked up overnight and will continue to increase throughout the day drifting snow at upper elevations into thicker and stiffer wind slabs.  These wind slabs will be found on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features.  Avoid obvious wind-drifted pillows and snow that feels firmer underfoot. Sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain will help you avoid this problem.  

Deeper down in the snowpack, persistent weak layers near the ground continue to linger where the snowpack was shallow prior to this storm. Identifying slopes where this poor snowpack structure exists is going to be impossible without digging down into the snowpack.  Avoid slopes where you get obvious signs of instability like loud thunderous collapses.  These persistent slab avalanches can be large taking with it most of the season's snowpack.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Snowfall from the last storm has created slabs over facets and depth hoar that continued to linger in shallow snowpacks that we had prior to this storm. The recent loading has stressed these weak layers near the ground especially below and near treeline. Take the time to dig down into the snowpack to assess if this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak exists. Paying attention to obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks. A persistent slab avalanche has the potential to break on or near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack and could produce a large avalanche.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    SW winds picked up overnight and will continue to be moderate to strong throughout the day.  With snow still in the fetches from the last storm, expect snow to be drifting at upper elevations into wind slabs. These wind slabs will most likely be found below ridgelines on the leeward sides and in cross-loaded terrain features.  Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows and signs of unstable snow like shooting cracks on the surface.  Avoid slopes that are actively loading.

    Be aware of cornices continuing to build on ridgelines.  These cornices can break further back than expected when traveling on ridgelines as well as create a big trigger on a slope on the slope below.   

Avalanche Discussion

Winds, winds and more winds will be the theme over the next several days and through the middle of next week. SW winds picked up last night and will continue to increase today as a strong polar jet pushes over us. We may see light flurries on Sunday with not much expected in terms of snowfall. Windy weather will stick with us through the middle of next week and really start to crank on Wednesday where we could see gusts in the 70 to 80 mph range and a  better chance of snow. 

Yesterday's warm temperatures and sun produced several small loose snow slides on steep solar aspects as the day warmed.  With temperatures slightly lower today, partly cloudy skies and moderate to strong winds forecasted, the threat of wet loose snow avalanches will not be as significant today as it was yesterday, but be sure to pack the Glob-Stopper as conditions could get sticky again as you transition from the sun to the shade. 

Storm slab instabilities seem to be healing quickly with surface slabs not as reactive yesterday as they were during previous days. However, with SW winds in the 20's gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range overnight and expected to increase throughout the day, expect to find snow drifting at upper elevations into thicker and denser wind slabs that may be more reactive. The Valentine's day storms from Monday evening through Wednesday brought 39" of snow and 2.95" of snow water equivalent (SWE) to the northern mountains here in NM. These storms came in right side up, with the first storm coming in warmer and denser than the second system Wednesday which was low-density blower powder.  

In travels below and near treeline, we were getting loud rumbling collapses on many slopes. Prior to this last round of snow, we saw three weeks of mainly high pressure with only small storms bringing minimal snow.  Cold temperatures and a still relatively shallow snowpack on many slopes didn't allow facets and depth hoar near the ground to heal and strengthen.   This was especially present, below treeline where some northerly slopes consisted of facets throughout the snowpack. There was a close call on Wednesday from a large human-triggered avalanche below treeline releasing on the ground. These weak layers have been stressed from this latest round of significant loading and are going to need time to adjust. 

Unfortunately, it's looking like strong winds are going to wreak havoc in the mountains over the next several days.  Wind-sheltered terrain is going to provide better skiing and riding options going forward over the next several days. 

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