Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Be prepared to encounter wet snow avalanche problems in avalanche terrain today. Warming temperatures in the afternoon and mixed precipitation/rain will decrease the stability of the snowpack. Watch out for rapidly changing snow conditions, such as soft or wet snow on steep slopes that is deeper than the top of your boot.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    What and where is it: It will be possible to trigger a wet loose avalanche on all aspects at middle and upper elevations today. As temperatures warm at upper elevations by mid-day, and later in the afternoon at middle elevations, snow surfaces will begin to warm. The addition of rain in the afternoon will further add to saturation in the snowpack, leading to wet snow conditions. These wet sloughs will appear as snow that has lost its cohesion due to excessive wetting and infiltration of rain into the new snow from yesterday's storm. This can occur on any steep surface that has been saturated by today's warming temperatures and rain at a small size. In isolated areas where wind slabs had previously formed, it could be possible to trigger a larger, more connected wet slab.

    How can you recognize it: Watch for areas of gloppy unconsolidated snow on steep slopes and deep boot penetration into the snow. Look for signs of small natural wet loose sluffs that create a triangular shape, snow falling off of rocks in steep terrain, and rolling/pinwheeling snowballs. How can you manage it:Pay attention to changes in temperature while traveling through terrain. Specifically, as you gain elevation, pay attention to warming temperatures. Assess snow saturation when traveling in steeper terrain. This can be done by checking boot penetration into the snow and feeling the snow surface for saturation. When traveling through avalanche terrain, check the saturation of the snow you are traveling on by stepping out of your skis to check penetration depth.

Avalanche Discussion

Today there is an increased uncertainty in avalanche hazard. Dynamic weather conditions such as temperatures, wind speeds, and precipitation are all rapidly changing today, and could cause an increase in the reactivity of the snow later today. 

Yesterday's storm deposited unconsolidated snow on top of a solid bed surface, which was then covered by a new ice crust during sleet accumulations this morning. Precipitation is expected to remain a wintery mix through the morning, before transitioning to rain at upper elevations by the afternoon. This transition to rain will saturate the snow surface, causing the potential for mushy, gloppy, and unconsolidated snow conditions. 

Temperatures are expected to be slightly inverted, with warmer temperatures at upper elevations and colder temperatures at middle elevations due to the structure of the air mass of the storm. Until temperatures climb above freezing, the present ice crust could limit snow reactivity. However, as warm air begins to circulate, temperatures will begin to trend above freezing, with warm temperatures expected at upper elevations by midday, and middle elevations by the late afternoon. 

Once warming begins to occur, the snow is likely to become more unstable, and avalanche risk will increase. The ice crust currently on the surface of the snow will begin to melt, allowing for water to seep into the snowpack. The snowpack itself will also begin to warm during this time, allowing for surfaces to become mushy or gloppy. In areas where there was less snow accumulation yesterday, these slides will be small, but they could still cause a fall in steep terrain due to weight and power. In areas where snow has more structure, such as start zones in higher terrain at north, east, and south aspects, you could trigger a more connected wet slab.

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts.

Regions covered