Avalanche forecast

Hatcher Pass

Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on slopes above 2500' for STORM SLAB and PERSISTENT SLAB avalanches. The danger is MODERATE below 2500' for STORM SLAB avalanches. You are likely to trigger avalanches today within the recent snow. Slides will be larger and easier to trigger as you climb in elevation. While less likely, you could trigger thicker, more destructive avalanches 1-3' deep on weak snow in the middle of the snowpack or near the ground. Seeking lower-angle, or wind sheltered slopes, will help decrease your odds of triggering a slide today. 

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  • A two-night stay at Hatcher Pass Lodge

Single ticket link here. 3-pack ticket link here.

***

Join us for our next State of the Snowpack chat on Wednesday, January 14th, at the Blue and Gold Boardshop in Wasilla. We will be excited to debrief the December drought and dive into shifting trends and the outlook as Hatcher Pass receives its first snow of 2026. Skeetawk will also be there to discuss their Management Plan for the area. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    By the end of the day, the mountains around Hatcher Pass will have received over  2 feet of new snow since Sunday night. A skier or rider could easily trigger a slide within this new low-density snow. As you climb in elevation, expect these slides to become larger and easier to trigger. At low elevations or in sheltered terrain, triggering a slab avalanche is less likely, but in steep terrain, you could trigger loose snow avalanches or sloughs that could knock you down and carry you where you don't want to go. These slides may gouge into the old weak snow near the ground—creating larger, more consequential avalanches. 

    As you climb in elevation into more wind-exposed terrain, it won't take much for winds to move this low-density snow around, creating a stiffer, more sensitive slab. These are the areas where you may trigger wider avalanches that could bury or injure a skier or rider—especially on slopes with gullies, concavities, or cliffs. Watch for cracking or collapsing within the new snow; this is evidence that you have found a consolidated slab of new snow capable of making avalanches. 

     

    (1/5/2026)

     8" in the IM parking lot at 5 PM on Monday. Overnight, an additional 11" fell, bringing storm totals close to 20". 

    Photo: Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    In isolated places across the forecast area, older, thicker, and stiffer wind drifts formed by strong December winds still harbor ugly weak snow in the middle of the snowpack. These dense slabs of snow are helping armor the weak snow below, making avalanches difficult to trigger. While these are low probability, they will have dire consequences and may break 1-3' thick, or step down to weak snow near the ground, making larger avalanches. Elsewhere across the forecast area, the snowpack has remained shallow and weak. In many places, new snow is falling on what could be described as a sandbox of weak faceted snow. Triggering a persistent slab avalanche here is less likely, where low-density snow fell onto the weak snow alone. 

    Be on the lookout for slopes where you find new snow, being drifted by winds, or where new snow overlays thin, breakable old wind slabs. These are the areas where you are most likely to trigger a slide. Take a moment to brush away the new snow to expose the old snow surface below, or take a pole to assess for thin, breakable old wind slabs.

    The snowpack is variable across the forecast area and within slopes. This means that you could find all three of the snowpacks discussed above and trigger a persistent slab avalanche at the top, middle, or bottom of the slope. 

     

Avalanche Discussion

Winter has returned! Since Sunday night, the mountains have received almost 2 feet of new snow, equalling 1" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Snow showers will continue today, further adding to storm totals. This is the first real test that the fledgling Hatcher Pass snowpack has seen this year. Since Sunday, the snow depth has more than doubled at the Independence Mine SNOTEL. This alone is a red flag and makes us wary of stepping into avalanche terrain. 

 

Recent Avalanches:

On Wednesday, December 31st, forecasters triggered a couple of small wind-loaded pockets mid-slope in Eldorado Bowl. Read the full observation here. Several small, natural wind slab avalanches (D1) have been observed throughout IM Bowl as a result of the most recent (12/28-29) rounds of wind. On Sunday, Dec. 28th, Forecasters in the field intentionally triggered several small (D1) wind slab avalanches on Marmot. See all recent observations here

 

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