Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Expect continued low avalanche hazard on Sunday. Firm snow near/above treeline will be your primary hazard. Crampons and ice axe will help to arrest any falls. Slopes below treeline may also have a firm and crusty snow surface. Avalanche hazards will increase by Monday as we enter a period of unsettled weather. 

This forecast is sponsored by Coconino County Sheriff's Search and Rescue.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Some starting zones on northerly and northeasterly aspects still have a weak layer near the base of the snowpack.  Recent observations indicate that the reactivity of this weak layer, found near ground level, is diminishing. The distribution of this weak basal layer may vary significantly, even in adjacent locations.

    While triggering an avalanche of this type will be unlikely, the consequences will be severe. The only way to determine the presence of this problem is to inspect the snowpack by digging to the ground, performing stability tests, and examining the structure. 

    More snow and wind this week may wake up this dormant problem. The last known avalanches resulting from persistent weak layers (near the ground) occurred during the MLK Storm Cycle of mid-January. They were natural avalanches of size ~D2. 

Avalanche Discussion

Snow near and above treeline is very firm and sculpted by wind, making travel at higher elevations strenuous. Lower elevations also have wind and temperature-affected snow, making for challenging touring. Crampons will be very helpful near/above treeline.

Winds this week have primarily scoured starting zones, rather than loaded. Also note that some northwesterly, westerly, and southwesterly aspects near/above treeline have firm snow with a slippery melt/freeze-glazed surface. New snow accumulation this upcoming week may not bond well to this glazed surface. 

This past week, some backcountry travelers reported a good corn snow harvest on southerly slopes with the right timing.  On Saturday, ~20-25° steep Northerly aspects between ~9,000 and 10,800' held some soft, settled, and fun powder snow. But the surface of this snow was littered with wind-blown tree debris. 

The last known avalanche occurred between January 23-27 and was a relatively small wind slab. The last known large avalanches occurred in mid-January during the MLK Storm Cycle. Enjoy the backcountry but have a plan when heading out, and stay adaptable when traveling through the mountains. 

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