Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

With an overnight freeze above 9,500' and some breeze today, conditions should keep wet‑avalanche danger limited.  Keep an eye on sunny, windless slopes where a bit of wet-loose snow might cause a little trouble. You might sniff out a few ok/fun powder turns on shady north slopes above 10,500', but the price of admission is getting silly: dry land, thin cover, firm and variable snow, and the occasional upper elevation steep-ice rink.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    If you are sinking above your ankles into a wet snowpack, move to a cooler, less-sunny slope. Any wet avalanches today should be small, as the snowpack is cold and it will take a lot of sunshine on windless slopes to produce instabilities. Light to moderate southerly winds are forecast today. 

    This hazard will be rare on southerly slopes below treeline, as snow cover there is mostly gone.  More polar (northwesterly, northerly, northeasterly) slopes near/above treeline are cold and will probably remain too cool to produce wet instabilities. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    It's worth noting that persistent weak layers remain in the snowpack. The primary layer of concern comprises facets and depth hoar below the holiday ice layers. The ice layers are found about 1/3 to 1/2 of the way up from the bottom of the snowpack on northerly aspects. The most recent instability tests indicate that the facets will produce failures, and the propensity for these failures to propagate is trending downward. Many ECTX results were documented this past weekend. Some rounding of the facets was also observed, and recently measured temperature gradients suggest that these facets will continue to strengthen. There are also facets above the holiday ice layer, but those have been unreactive. 

    This is a very low-probability but high-consequence problem that could still be triggered in northerly terrain. There are always knowledge gaps and uncertainty about the snowpack and avalanche probabilities, even at low danger. The forecast will continue to list this problem until it becomes inactive (very close to that now) or until these facet layers finally move on. Check out Mathieu's March 7 forecast discussion for a brief season history of the persistent slab problem. 

    (2/28/2026)

    The image shows a slab that just slid off during an extended column test (ECT) at a KPAC recreational level 1 course. Propagating instabilities like this were not found this past weekend. ECTP17 NW aspect at 11,500' on 2/28. Failure occurred in facets/depth hoar below the holiday ice layer. 

    Video image-still from Mike Farrell. 

Avalanche Discussion

Today, upper‑mountain temperatures remain similar to yesterday’s. The snowpack is generally cold, and breezy conditions today should keep the likelihood of wet loose avalanches minimal.  However, if you encounter wet snow or are sinking into the snowpack, move to a cooler, less sunny slope. If you are looking to harvest springtime corn snow, an early start is always best. It's better to show up early and wait for the melt/freeze surface to soften, rather than show up late to a wet, saturated, and destabilizing snowpack. 

Most access and egress locations have lost snow connectivity due to snow melt over the last week.  Expect additional transitions and challenges when moving from zone to zone across the mountain. With a frozen melt/freeze surface in the mornings, and patches of exposed holiday ice layers, today's a great day for ski or splitboard crampons, traction devices, and at the very least an ice axe or whippet pole-attachment.  Knowing how to use this equipment and staying conservative could prevent a slip-and-slide situation and save you a few hundred feet of unexpected elevation loss, not to mention a serious injury.

A small group of dedicated individuals who have not given up on winter continues to find a few "hard to get to", but pleasurable turns.  Check out some observations here. If you find yourself out in the backcountry, consider submitting a post-trip observation.  Your contributions are greatly appreciated!! 

Northern Arizona locations just experienced the warmest Dec-Jan-Feb (meteorological winter) period on record.  See the info table. In general, warm and dry spring conditions look to dominate the foreseeable future. On March 8, the Snowside Canyon SNOTEL snow depth of 35" is 67% of the median, and the SWE value of 11.9" is 75% of the median. Records go back to the 1997/1998 season.

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