Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanches will be possible on Monday and could become likely by the afternoon as the day heats up.  Be wary of sunny slopes if they are getting slushy later in the day.  Avalanches will also be possible in previously wind blown snow.  While most of these wind slabs would be small, larger slopes up high could produce a consequential avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures approaching 50 F near treeline will melt the surface snow.  If the sun is strong in the afternoon, Wet Loose avalanches will become likely on those sunny slopes.  One limiting factor to Wet Loose avalanches will be Friday's rain crust, and I suspect that in most cases Wet Loose avalanches will only involve the snow that lies above this crust.  During these warm periods, Wet Loose avalanches can be initiated by Cornice Collapses.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The wind really did a number on the small amount of new snow.  On Sunday, nearly all the snow that I toured through was affected by the wind.  Many slopes were blue with shiny ice, and there was much more scoured terrain than we typically see.  I was able to find isolated pockets of shallow wind slab on East slopes near treeline.  I didn't find anything big enough to constitute an avalanche problem.

    I will say that because so many slopes were scoured down to ice, I found myself skinning into lee start zones more than I like too.  If you are headed into the high country to make turns on Monday, bring crampons and/or ski crampons and/or an ice axe.  Triggering an avalanche large enough to bury or injure a rider isn't out of the question.  On Sunday Wind Slabs were stiff and obvious.  The ice crust beneath is a great landmark for how large an avalanche could be.

Avalanche Discussion

The dominating event in our recent weather was the rain/ice event that occurred last Thursday night.  Our Moon Mountain weather station was encased in water ice, and the anemometer was broken.  Relatively small amounts of new snow on Friday night and Saturday morning, helped out a bit, but strong winds have stripped many upper elevation slopes down to the water ice.

Regions covered