Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Generally stable conditions exist, and large avalanches are unlikely. However, we can't rule out triggering a large avalanche in exposed, typically windy terrain. There, rocky slopes and chutes with variable snow depths are the most likely places to find trouble. To reduce your risk, consider the consequences of being caught in a slide before playing in large avalanche paths. 

The danger will rise after dark as a storm moves into the area. 

Today's primary concern is triggering a Persistent Slab avalanche on weak layers buried in the upper 3 feet of the snowpack. Where is this most likely?

• Exposed, windy slopes with variable snow depths and rocks sticking up above the snowpack.
• Slope angles in the "prime time" range where the majority of slab avalanches release, around 37-50 degrees.
• Slopes where wind frequently transports snow, forms drifts, or stiffens the snowpack.
• Middle and upper elevation slopes where surface hoar or facets exist, above crusts on some slopes. The problematic weak layers are more common on slopes facing the northern half of the compass. The weak layers can be subtle and difficult to see or feel in snowpits in some areas, and they are obvious on slopes with thinner overall snow depths.

The more bullet points you check, the more you should be thinking about triggering a large avalanche. 

You probably won't experience obvious signs of instability like snowpack collapsing or cracking. When avalanches release, they could break well above you on the slope and be wider than expected. Avalanches triggered in shallow areas could involve much thicker slabs on the same slope.

Most slopes are stable, but the chance of triggering a large avalanche is not zero. Determining if the chance of triggering a slide on a questionable slope is 1-in-20, 1-in-100, 1-in 1000, or 1-in-10,000 can be difficult for even the most seasoned backcountry travelers. However, we have higher confidence about the size of avalanches we can trigger: large enough to bury people. One way to manage risk is to carefully consider the consequences of being caught in an avalanche. Could a slide carry you into trees, over cliffs, or into a creek or gully where avalanche debris could pile up deep? Choosing terrain that reduces the consequences of an avalanche is much easier than definitively determining whether or not you can trigger an avalanche. 

"New snow" instabilities: You may find thin, fresh wind slabs in exposed terrain. Today's wind could build existing slabs or form new slabs. While not large, the wind slabs could be sensitive to triggering where they overlie crusts and/or small, weak faceted snow crystals. Triggering small sluffs involving the snow from the past several days is possible. If tonight's storm arrives earlier than forecasted or if you are out near sunset, expect the new snow instabilities to grow in thickness and width and become easier to trigger.