Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Incremental inputs of new snow have added weight and sensitivity to the snowpack. Stay off steep slopes where you encounter shooting cracks, collapsing, and recent slab avalanches. Wet snow avalanches will be a concern with rain and warm temperatures. Be suspicious of slopes steeper than 35 degrees if you're moving through heavy, mushy snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    There is some complexity to the snowpack right now and what a slab could slide on varies. Regardless of what the potential bed surface is, the treatment is the same. Use safe and representative test slopes and quick hand pits to test the bond of new snow layers. If you choose to dig a pit, you'll be looking to identify buried surface hoar, crusts, and weak facets all within the upper portion of the snowpack. Poor snowpack structure will feel like harder snow over softer snow. Anticipate different layering as you change elevations and aspects. If you encounter hard snow surfaces, rapid changes in snow depth, and cornices, presume that deeper slabs of recently wind-drifted snow can be found just below ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies. With the added weight of a bigger slab, these areas could be especially sensitive and an avalanche will be larger. Shooting cracks, collapsing, and recent slab avalanches are clear signs that you should avoid steep, exposed terrain.

    (1/3/2025)

    A human-triggered avalanche near White Pass. This slide broke widely and was triggered from further back on the ridge. [N 5500']

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Peak instability will be overnight on Saturday into Sunday when rain falls at lower elevations. However, freezing levels will rise to 4500 ft on Sunday so the already wetted snowpack will continue to see some instability. The typical progression of wet loose avalanches involves rollerballs and pinwheels that lead to point releases. They often start from cliff bands. Other signs that indicate warming are sticky snow surfaces, chunks of snow falling off trees, and water dripping from cliffs. If the snow under your skis or sled feels heavy and sticky, consider sticking to slopes less than 35 degrees.

    (12/29/2024)

    This natural avalanche gouged into the wet snow and grew quite large. West Face Teanaway Mt. 

    Photo: Rob Pollard

Avalanche Discussion

Reports have been varied on the distribution and sensitivity of buried crusts and weak faceted grains. There have also been some differences in how cohesive the surface slab is. We haven't gotten reports of notable avalanches in the East Central zone yet, but the potential for avalanches increases as snow falls on top and adds new load. The warm-up on Sunday could also help form the necessary slab in many areas.

The nearby East South zone received more snow earlier in the week and saw this increase in hazard. Observers found touchy conditions and triggered avalanches on a layer of buried surface hoar roughly 1 foot deep. The 2-6 inches the East Central zone expects to see overnight on Saturday into Sunday could be what it takes to tip the scales.

There is some uncertainty about how the rain will affect the likelihood of wet snow avalanches on Sunday. For starters, there is a discrepancy in the timing of some weather inputs on Sunday. Most weather models suggest that the snow and rain will mostly turn off by early morning, but others point towards continued precipitation into the daylight hours. Secondly, the robust crust found at lower elevations that may be under little new snow will have to break down first before it begins to lose strength. All in all, consider this: if you are out and still getting rained on or you are punching through the snowpack deep below the crust, anticipate a higher likelihood.

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