Seward and Lost Lake

Avalanche problems

• 

  Storm Slabs

  N

  NE

  E

  SE

  S

  SW

  W

  NW

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline

  Likelihood

  Very Likely

  Size

  1.5–3

  We are in the throes of a region wide storm event that is estimated to deliver 2 to 4” of water by Sunday evening. Today the storm looks to continue pummeling the peninsula with heavy rain/snowfall and strong southeast winds gusting over 50 mph. Seward and Lost Lake may see 1 to 2” of water today falling as snow (6 to 16”) above 4000’. Large natural avalanches in the new snow and windblown snow 1 to 3’ deep will be likely. These have the potential to run into rain saturated snow carrying avalanche debris to valley bottoms. Today may be a good day to wake up slow and do some puzzling. If anyone decides to venture in the storm to test out their gore-tex be sure to avoid traveling on or underneath steep terrain.

  The storm is supposed to reachits peak today.  The good news is that the rain/snow line is forecast to decrease to 1000’ by Sunday evening with another 1.5” of water expected. 

  

• 

  Loose Wet

  N

  NE

  E

  SE

  S

  SW

  W

  NW

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline

  Likelihood

  Likely

  Size

  1.5–2.5

  If the weather verifies natural wet snow avalanches will be likely below 4000’. With such a high rain/snow line these avalanches could run a long way and entrain a lot of snow capable of burying a human. Rollerballs falling or being blown off of rocky outcrops or trees are clues that the snow near the surface is becoming saturated and losing strength. This problem is most concerning on steep slopes above you as well in gullies and terrain traps where avalanche debris piles up. The safests option today is to steer clear of these areas especailly slopes above you that are steep enough to slide. 

  We still have limited information on the status of the snowpack in Snug Harbor and Lost Lake. Due to this uncertainty we are not sure if this storm could produce wet slab avalanches. Be extra cautious if you get out today and feel free to take some photos or send us a quick observation.