Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Rounds of new snow continue to build slabs overlaying weak layers in the snowpack. These slabs will be more sensitive in wind-affected areas. Stick to lower angle, wind-sheltered terrain if you see signs of instability such as cracking, collapsing, and recent slab avalanches.

UPDATE: Due to the earlier timing of rain on snow in the afternoon, a wet loose avalanche problem has been added, and the danger has increased at middle and lower elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow over the next 24 hours will add to recent storm layers. This snow will initially have a poor bond to the recent snow beneath it and it may be easy to trigger sluffs of dry snow. In total, you will encounter 1-2 ½ foot slabs of new and recent snow that overlay buried weak layers in the snowpack. You could trigger a large avalanche on these layers that are being tested for the first time this season. In complex and exposed terrain, you may find deeper and denser slabs where the wind has transported snow. You will be more likely to trigger an avalanche in similar terrain.

    As the snow continues to stack up and settle, monitor the snowpack for signs of instability. Take the time to stomp around off the skin or sled track and on safe test slopes representative of the slopes you plan to ski or sled. Be on the lookout for indications that storm snow is unstable. Cracks shooting out from your skis or sled, collapsing, and recent avalanches are #1 indicators that the snow is unstable. If you find any of these, avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

    (12/14/2024)

    A small slab of recent storm snow triggered recently in the East Central zone.

    Photo: Mike Rolfs

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A warm front will hit the East South zone in the afternoon and rain will start to fall. The exact timing of the rain and how quickly it will begin to destabilize the snowpack is uncertain but don't wait around to find out. If you start getting rained on, stay off slopes steeper than 35 degrees. 

Avalanche Discussion

The series of storms impacting the zone this week are putting the first true test of strength onto buried weak layers. Near crust facets around the 12/7 melt freeze crust have been observed throughout the forecast region. Up to 1 inch of SWE is expected to fall by Tuesday afternoon, after which rain will start to fall. We expect to see avalanche activity with this dynamic weather.

An observer reported natural wind slab avalanches in the nearby East Central zone on Monday. This is a great example of where wind affected snow may be found in more exposed terrain. If you plan to venture into similar terrain, assess the snowpack for an increase in density, as this often indicates an increase in sensitivity.

The East South zone still lacks a deeper snowpack at lower elevations. Be on the lookout for low tide hazards that may exist under very little snow and be obscured from view.

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