Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a persistent weak layer of buried surface hoar in the upper 2 feet of the snowpack is possible in sheltered northern terrain. Triggering a weak layer of facets close to the ground is becoming unlikely. 

Use cautious good travel protocols in steep wind and sun-sheltered terrain where you are most likely to find this persistent weak layer.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A layer of buried surface hoar, around 64cm (2 feet) down below the snow surface has been responsible for natural avalanches that failed sometime around Friday towards the end of the last storm.

    Recent test results show it strengthening sightly, yet this may take time and it could get more touchy as the snow above it gets harder this week making triggering avalanches more possible as the slab above enables more transfer of energy.

    Use caution in steep wind and sun-sheltered terrain where you are most likely to find this persistent weak layer.

    (1/15/2024)

    12/23 Buried Surface Hoar Layer under 2 feet of snow responsible for widespread natural avalanche cycle 

    Photo: George Halcom

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    November was fairly cold and dry and thus formed buried weak facets. The depth of this weak layer is increasing into the 100cm or 3 feet range. The chances of triggering this weak layer are getting harder, yet stability tests show potential for propagation if you do which could result in a large avalanche involving most of our snowpack. The depth varies from 3-5 feet deep. Use extra caution on shady Northern rocky aspects where the snowpack is thinner and triggering is more likely.

Avalanche Discussion

Persistent weak layers persist so don't get in too much of a hurry. If these fail, they could break far above you and go big! Stack all the odds in your favor:  Maintain good travel protocols like spreading out one at a time on steep slopes and keeping your eyes on your partners. The weak layers in the snowpack are there and they may not disappear this season, and could fail under new loading or a temperature warmup like what is forecasted for this week.  

Use extra caution if not avoidance of upper elevation steep Northern terrain Rocky terrain where thin spots in the slab are likely trigger spots. Triggering these weak layers is getting harder yet not impossible. Propagation results were positive in stability tests on Monday MLK 1/15/24 see the observation here.

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