Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  Recently formed wind slabs are gaining strength, but will still be possible for a person to trigger 1-3 feet in depth in specific areas.  Natural avalanches are unlikely.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday- Sunday at 8 am

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Strong North winds began to affect our area on the 29th redepositing significant amounts of dry snow and building deep wind slabs.  Wind speed peaked on the night of the 30th with gusts in the mid 60's on Thompson Pass.  During this time numerous natural avalanches occurred up to size 3.  Winds are on a slow decline but are expected to continue to be at least moderate through wind channeled terrain like Thompson Pass and high elevation ridges.

    Expect to find an array of wind-damaged snow out there today with wind slabs on lee aspects 1-3+ feet in depth.  These wind slabs are now a few days old and are becoming harder with age.  This increase in strength will make slabs stubborn- unreactive to triggers but if one were to fail it would have the potential for wide propagations, and could fail behind you once you have already traveled out onto the slab.  The likelihood of human-triggered avalanches is decreasing, but still should be considered as consequences would be high due to the knife hard snow that would be involved.  

    Wind slabs will have a hollow-drum-like feel and can have a smooth pillowed look or a rippled texture.  These will exist on the lee side of terrain features, cross loaded slopes and just below high elevation ridges.  Signs of instability are not likely to exist, but if they are encountered it is a a bullseye sign of instability.

    In areas where the snow is protected from the wind, good stability and snow structure have been observed as recently as 1/31.

    (1/30/2025)

    Remote triggered Hard slab. Comstock lowers.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

Date unknown- Deep Hard slab natural avalanche on the North Face of Three Pigs.

Date unknown- D3 natural on South 3 pigs MP 38

1/31-Keystone Canyon avalanche path to the lookers right of Bridal Veil ran naturally running full course with significant debris deposit in the Lowe River.

Date unknown-D3 on North Ramp Mt Francis. HS-N-R4.5-D3

1/30-D2 Remote triggered hard slab on lower Comstock. 

Forecast Discussion:

Winds are slowly decreasing in strength this is notable not just on wx station anemometers but also with the development of an inversion.  Temperatures at low elevation are dropping while they are rising at upper elevations.  This stratification of the air column happens when winds decrease in strength and distribution.

The wind slabs we now have are in the later part of their life cycle.  As wind slabs are initially formed, they are slightly stiffer than the unaffected snow.  Sensitivity will be high and small pockets will become reactive either in cross-loaded terrain of the lee side of high elevation ridges.  As these continue to form they will become more connected, deeper and stiffer.  This is when wind slabs are at their most dangerous as there is enough cohesion to propagate an avalanche, but are still soft enough that a person or machine can penetrate the slab allowing it to bend and fail.  As wind speeds abate, or there is no longer any more loose snow available for transport wind slabs will set up and gain significant strength.  At this point slabs become rock hard and unreactive unless they have been deposited on a persistent grain.  Avalanches are still possible but they are difficult to initiate.  We are currently in this later phase, stubborn- unreactive windslabs exist in specific locations that could be triggered in isolated places.   

Additional Information:

In addition to avalanche hazard, very cold air temps along with strong winds will create dangerous wind chill values.  Be prepared with the proper gear as -45° F wind chills are expected today on Thompson Pass.

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located above the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 2/1 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow February Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    0    30     0      Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O    0    ~500 Nicks    0    0    161    0 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   22    0 N/O

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