Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human-triggered avalanches remain possible across many aspects where wind-deposited snow exists, especially in complex alpine terrain steeper than 35 degrees. Warm and sunny weather will promote wet-snow instabilities over the daylight hours. Thorough snowpack evaluation, careful terrain management, and strong situational awareness are ways to reduce your uncertainty and increase your safety margins.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The recent storm event on Mount Shasta held predominantly southeast winds. Over the past 24 hours, a shift to northerly winds have redistributed snow onto southerly aspects, forming new slabs that will likely be the most reactive and immediate threat to travelers today. Areas of concern include rock outcroppings, ridgelines, and along the sidewalls of gullies and chutes. Travelers venturing into complex alpine terrain should continuously reassess snow conditions and watch where blowing snow is accumulating. Terrain selection is key. 

    Older wind slabs remain present on north, west, and south aspects where terrain has been loaded and cross-loaded. Yesterday, unstable test results were found in previous wind-deposited snow on a southwest aspect above treeline in Avalanche Gulch. While no other signs of instability were observed, test results indicate the snowpack holds enough energy for avalanche potential. 

    (12/27/2025)

    Blowing snow like this can lead to quick-forming wind slabs among pockets of steep and complex terrain  

    Photo: Christian Jordan

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    The forecast zone is entering a period of stable weather accompanied by rising temperatures and increased solar radiation. These factors will lead to growing wet-snow instability. While this problem is expected to be small and confined to steep southerly slopes near and below treeline, it can still pose a hazard. As temperatures and solar input increase, snow surfaces will weaken. With ample soft snow available to become wet and unstable, watch for natural signs of instability such as rollerballs and point releases. These are precursors for wet loose avalanches and indicate the potential for human-triggered slides. Steer around steep terrain showing signs of wet snow.

    (12/27/2025)

    Roller balls on a south aspects below treeline 

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

It's been two days since the recent storm cycle impacted the region, leaving Mount Shasta well covered in new snow. A natural avalanche cycle was observed yesterday that likely occurred on December 24th during a period of High danger. Three avalanches were identified, though additional activity likely exists. All avalanches occurred above treeline and involved the new storm snow. Sizes range from D1 to D3 and slid primarily on west aspects. See THIS observation for additional details.

Updated snow depths are uncertain on the west side of the forecast area. Most lower elevation access points are still building a snowpack that remains unusable for winter recreation. 

Recent observations have found the snowpack to be settling out nicely, though stability tests have found unstable results. 

Check out our observation page for additional insights around our forecast zone.

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