Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A dangerous persistent slab setup can be found on Northwest through East aspects above treeline, where slabs up to several feet deep sit on top of very weak layers of facets and depth hoar.  Moving slightly down in elevation, the slabs are more diminished, but you could still find the right slab/weak layer combination on some slopes.  Any avalanche of this variety could break widely and deeply, taking with it most of the season's snowpack and easily be large enough to injure or bury you.

Another night without a refreeze and temps climbing higher today than they have all season, watch for wet loose activity on solar aspects as well as lower-elevation northerly terrain. Look out for roller balls and pinwheels to indicate that the snow surface is becoming really wet and that it's time to head to a shadier aspect or back to your car.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Cohesive slabs 1-3 feet deep sit on top of our shallow, weak faceted snowpack on Northerly and East aspects near and above treeline.  Higher elevation slopes above treeline continue to be the most dangerous, as the slabs are the thickest and most consistent.  Near treeline slopes have taken more heat in general, but some will still harbor this unstable setup of strong over weak.  Obvious red flags like cracking and collapsing may not be present in travels and tracks on a slope is not an indication that it's safe. Avalanches of this variety could be remotely triggered, propagate widely, step down, or run near the ground. They could also easily be large enough to injure or bury you.

    Most persistent slab avalanches will fail like this one, close to the ground, taking with it most of the season's snowpack and will easily be big enough to bury you. 

    (2/22/2026)

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Rapid warming and intense solar radiation today will quickly destabilize the snow near the surface and lead to wet loose avalanches.  These typically smaller avalanches generally follow the sun around to slopes throughout the day, but they will also impact northerly aspects with a solar component and due North terrain below treeline with such warm temperatures.  These avalanches typically start as small point releases, oftentimes around sunbathed rocks, and fan out as they travel downslope and entrain more snow.  Watch for obvious signs that the snow surface is becoming wet and unstable, like roller balls and pinwheels.  Some of these avalanches could grow large enough to be dangerous on their own, but they can also step down into deeper weak layers in areas where they overlap with the persistent slab problem.

    Water is percolating down deeper into the snowpack after another night without a refreeze, and there are some areas that could potentially generate a larger and more dangerous wet slab avalanche.  Deeper snowpacks at mid elevation with significant solar exposure and deeper northerly snowpacks at low elevation are the best candidates for this issue.  It's best to avoid avalanche terrain in these areas if you're out late in the afternoon.

    Pinwheels and rollerballs are indications that snow surface is becoming wet and saturated.

    (2/26/2026) Photo: Charlie Harrison

Avalanche Discussion

The meteorological winter has come to an end as we turn the page to March, but temperatures over the last several days have been more in line with late April. The warmest day so far this season is in store for today, with temperatures climbing into the mid 50's at trailhead elevations. Albuquerque looks to potentially set a record high temperature of 80F today.  Overnight temps haven't helped with several stations above freezing this morning.  10 to 20 mph winds at ridgelines should help with some of the warming at upper elevations, but it'll be another hot one. If you're out early, you'll have some supportable crusts to travel on, but in many places, they are very thin or will turn breakable and punchy by mid-morning if they aren't already. 

It's been over a week since the last snow, but the weather, as of late, has done strange things that are playing into our avalanche concerns for today.  Above treeline Northwest through East aspects continue to retain well-connected slabs that have proven to still be reactive and able to produce large avalanches breaking on buried drought facets or depth hoar near the ground. Facets and depth hoar are still easy to impact in travels in our overall shallow snowpack. These upper elevation slopes will continue to be the most dangerous, but some near treeline slopes on similar aspects harbor the same problem.  The snowpack depths are just spottier at these elevations compared to above treeline, and relatedly, the slabs aren't as robust or widespread.  This will mean less overall danger at these elevations, but a more unpredictable situation slope to slope.  We came across a large natural avalanche on an ENE near treeline aspect the other day that appeared to have failed on February 25th or 26th, painting a scary overall picture of what's possible even at these mid-elevations.

This avalanche was not one you would want to be involved in.  It failed naturally on early season depth hoar, breaking 2-3ft deep, 150ft wide, and sent most of the season's snowpack about 600 vertical feet downhill.  (2/27/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

Typically, as we push further away from the last storm, the likelihood of triggering slab avalanches goes down as the slabs settle and change.  But this warm weather period has been wildly unseasonal, and it's led to unusual behavior from the snowpack.  Whether the natural avalanches we've seen recently were due to nearby wet loose activity, warm rocks near the start zone, or a warming slab is kind of difficult to say, but we do know that this nasty snowpack structure exists on much of our northerly and East-facing avalanche terrain above treeline as well as plenty of similar aspects near treeline. 

Lower down in elevation, the snowpack has been taking a lot of heat this week.  Wet loose activity will be ongoing today with rapidly warming temperatures and direct sunlight.  These smaller avalanches will also affect more of the northerly terrain today, with warm temperatures and no refreeze overnight.  Over the last couple of days, water has been percolating deeper into the snowpack on some solar aspects above 11,000 ft, so the threat of wet slabs continues to build.  Deeper snowpacks at low elevation or those at middle elevations (up to near treeline) with significant solar exposure would be the most suspect for this issue to develop.  If you happen to be in the mountains late in the afternoon, be cautious around avalanche terrain and runout zones if you're finding it easy to punch in past the wet snow near the surface all the way to your hip or the ground. 

It's a spooky setup in the mountains right now.  Ask yourself: Is the skiing and riding quality even worth messing around with any larger avalanche terrain today?  It'll be another great day for other outdoor activities like cycling, climbing or floating, but if you are getting out, make a conservative plan with a wide margin for error and finish up early.

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