Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Snow will accumulate through the day and avalanche danger will increase. Pay attention as wind drifted pockets grow larger at upper elevations. If you notice large drifts of thicker snow easily breaking off under your feet on steep slopes, shift away from those areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Up to 6 inches of snow will fall by the end of Saturday’s forecast period. Strong winds are expected, so the slabs that are produced may become large and reactive enough to increase the danger to moderate. When new snow drifts start getting ankle-deep or more, pay attention to the snow’s characteristics. If pockets are thick and cracking easily, or sliding on steeper slopes, shift your travels to lower elevation terrain or slopes where you don’t find wind slabs. Expect to find the deposits along ridgelines, in gullies, and around rocky outcroppings.  

    A shallow wind slab avalanche similar to what you might be able to trigger on a steep slope on Saturday afternoon. Photo: Matt Lubar

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    We are still leery of the persistent weak layer which is buried one to two feet beneath the surface at the top of the Late January Crust. Several days have passed since an avalanche was reported on the layer, but with incoming snow (weight) the possibility of an avalanche occurring on this layer may increase, so consider giving the following areas a wider berth as the storm continues:. 

    • The layers are most prevalent on shady aspects above 5400 feet in elevation.  
    • There is 1- 2  feet of new snow above the weak layer.
    • Observed avalanche sizes are ~D2.
    • Snowpack tests produce inconsistent results, sometimes even in the same snowpit.
    • Many steep slopes where riders got out on with no results saw nearby slopes or another location on that slope avalanche on the weak layer. 

    Although the likelihood of triggering one of these avalanches is low, the consequences could be high if you are in high consequence terrain. Remember, persistent slab avalanches can be triggered from low on the slope or remotely. Factor in what would happen if you trigger a large avalanche on the slope you’re planning on getting out on.

    (2/14/2022)

    An avalanche found deep in the West Central zone, which probably failed naturally on the persistent weak layer about 2 weeks ago.  

    Photo: Jeff Rich

Avalanche Discussion

The storm will intensify midday Saturday, and a majority of the snow will fall overnight into Sunday. Forecasts are predicting about 10 inches to fall overnight, on top of what we receive Saturday. Strong winds will continue redistributing the snow into more reactive slabs. 

All of a sudden we’re back to winter with cooler temperatures and fresh snow. The good thing about this storm is that aside from locations with the persistent weak layer, our avalanche concerns are primarily limited to the new snow layers. This is relatively shallow and easy to identify. With serious melting occurring in recent weeks, don’t forget about the crusty, variable surfaces beneath the new snow while you’re out on Saturday.

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