Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

2024 is going out with some spicy avalanche conditions. Over the past several days, dozens of human-triggered avalanches have been reported, many of which were remotely triggered from lower-angled slopes connected to steeper slopes. Many natural avalanches have occurred during the same period. These dangerous avalanche conditions require conservative terrain selection, such as skiing and riding on lower-angled slopes (less than 30 degrees) that are not connected to steeper slopes above. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Soft slabs averaging 1 to 2 feet thick in sheltered terrain and larger in wind-loaded terrain will be most sensitive to triggers where they formed over fragile facets, collapsible crusts, or surface hoar layers on west, north, and east aspects.  Slab behavior is becoming more challenging as slabs stiffen and thicken, with dozens of recent remote triggers and slabs propagating wider across terrain features.  Cracking and collapsing are blatant warning signs to travel on slope angles less than 30 degrees without overhead hazards, though not all slopes will give obvious feedback.  

    A large persistent slab near Red Lady Glades likely ran on Saturday night.  

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    A strong to extreme wind event occurred on Sunday night and into Monday. The wind direction during that time varied from the southwest to the northwest, and there was plenty of available snow to transport to the lee sides of terrain features, such as below corniced ridgelines, leeward rollovers, and cross-loaded gullies. However, the more significant concern is that a triggered wind slab could step down and trigger a larger persistent slab described above.  Avoid traveling on or below wind-loaded slopes to manage the problem.

    An example of a slab avalanche that broke below a leeward ridgeline from earlier this weekend.  

Avalanche Discussion

The most recent change in backcountry conditions came from the Extreme wind event that occurred on Sunday Night and into Monday. For example, Cinnamon Mountain at 12,300ft recorded an 11-hour period with average wind speeds in the 30s and 40s with gusts to 80mph. Elevated winds extended to valley elevations during that same period, with a weather station in Crested Butte recording wind gusts to 30mph. Thanks to all the snow that accumulated last week, plenty of snow was already available for transport by those winds. Snow totals in the last 24 hours also added additional snow available for transport, with around 7" accumulating in the NW Mountains and around 3" accumulating in the SE Mountains. We suspect these winds spurred on another round of natural avalanches during the same period. 

Since December 26th, 122 avalanches have been recorded in our avalanche database. Avalanches will continue to be documented today with better visibility, so that number will grow. The number of human-triggered avalanches will likely continue to grow as well this week, as the snowpack is ripe for a prolonged period of continued avalanche activity. Persistent weak layers are the most widespread in the west, north, and east aspects, with some southeast aspects potentially harboring those persistent weak layers as well. Click here to see a distribution of that avalanche activity around the compass rose. 

Regions covered