Solar radiation and increasing freezing levels will increase natural avalanche activity. Avoid slopes with overhead exposure where falling cornices could trigger large avalanches.
Confidence
Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain
Weather Forecast
The ridge over the province begins to break down on Friday with increasing clouds on Saturday and perhaps some flurries on Sunday. Expect winds to be generally light and southerly. The BIG news is the increasing freezing levels on Saturday(~2000m) which may be followed by poor crust recovery Saturday night and even higher freezing levels on Sunday(~2200m).
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, 2 sledders were killed in an avalanche near Blue River. We still have very little information about the incident. More details will be made public as they become available. In recent days, a smaller surface avalanche stepped down and triggered a size 3 slab on a southwest facing slope at treeline. The late February surface hoar layer was the likely weak layer associated with this avalanche. This illustrates the potentially touchy and destructive nature of the late February interface. Solar radiation and increasing freezing levels will become the driver for natural avalanche activity in the coming days.
Snowpack Summary
At ridgetop, cornices are huge and could become increasingly touchy with forecast solar radiation. Convective flurries on Wednesday produced highly variable amounts of low density snow ranging from 15-30cm. Moderate westerly winds have created fresh wind slabs on lee features at treeline and in the alpine. The new snow overlies buried wind slabs. 70-100cm below the surface you'll find a persistent weak layer comprised of surface hoar, facets and/or a thick crust. This layer seems variably reactive. In other words, it's still really touchy in some places while in other spots it's really tough to trigger, and there's not much of a reliable pattern telling us what exact aspects are most suspect. I'd continue to be suspicious of steep, unsupported features at treeline and in the alpine as this layer has the potential for very large avalanches. Below this interface, the snowpack is generally gaining strength.
Problems
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.