Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

THURSDAY NIGHT - Snow, 15-30 cm / southwest wind, 30-60 km/h / alpine low temperature near -7

FRIDAY - Snow, heavy at times, 20-40 cm / southwest wind, 40-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1500 m

SATURDAY - Snow, heavy at times, 15-25 cm / southwest wind, 40-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1600 m

SUNDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries / southeast wind, 10-20km/h / alpine high temperature near -8

Significant snowfall amounts, warm temperatures and strong to extreme winds will mean that a natrual avalanche cycle is almost certain for most of the Purcells on Friday.

On Sunday there was a report of a size 3 explosive controlled deep persistent slab avalanche on a north aspect in the alpine. The fracture was 150 cm deep. On Monday there were also reports of a few explosives controlled size 1.5 deep persistent slab avalanches on north aspects at treeline.

An intense winter storm is underway over most of the Purcell region, with anywhere from 15-30 cm overnight Thursday, and another 20-40 cm possible over much of the region throughout the day on Friday. The most significant snowfall amounts are expected further south in the region, with areas near Golden receiving lower amounts.

Anywhere from 40-100 cm of recent snow may sit on a weak layer of surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline. A second layer of surface hoar primarily found in the in north of the region is found 60-90 cm below the surface in sheltered areas at treeline. There are a variety of crusts buried in the mid to lower snowpack. These crusts have mostly broken down. The base of the snowpack generally consists of facets and depth hoar.