Avalanche Forecast

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Light flurries delivering a few cm of snow, 20-40 km/h wind from the southwest, alpine temperatures around -5 C.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries and up to 5 cm of new snow, 20-30 km/h wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -3 C.

MONDAY: Next frontal system arrives bringing 5-15 cm of snow by the afternoon, 40-60 km/h wind from the southwest, freezing level up to 1000 m with alpine high temperatures around -2 C.

TUESDAY: Stormy weather continues with another 5-15 cm of snow, 30-50 km/h wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -2 C.

A size 1.5 skier-triggered avalanche was reported on the MIN on Friday (see full report and photos here). The avalanche occurred on a convex north-facing slope at treeline and failed on a surface hoar layer 50 cm below the surface. This is the first avalanche reported in the region the past few days, but highlights a potential persistent slab problem that could produce larger avalanches on bigger terrain features.

Sheltered terrain has 10-30 cm of low density snow, while exposed terrain has been affected by recent wind from the southwest. Reports suggest there are two layers of surface hoar buried 25-50 cm below the surface. A skier triggered avalanche on one of these layers on Friday suggests the snow above this layer has likely developed into a reactive slab in certain parts of the region. There is uncertainty about the distribution of this layer, but the sheltered slopes around treeline elevations are the most suspect for having preserved surface hoar.

• Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
• Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.