Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 25th, 2013 10:07AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada slemieux, Avalanche Canada

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Wind speed or direction are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Friday night and Saturday: A bit of a precipitation break with moderate winds with strong gusts from the NW friday night. Another unsettled air mass will bring more precipitation on the region on Saturday but no significant amounts. Light W winds gusting moderate in the afternoon and surface freezing level and seasonal temperatures in the alpine (-7 C). Sunday: Similar pattern with some light precipitation, moderate W winds, cooler temperatures (down to -12 C). Monday: Arctic front tracking towards the region bringing more light precipitations and even cooler temperatures.

Avalanche Summary

Small loose avalanche cycle up to 1.5 ran on the January 23rd interface mostly on NE aspects. There was also a few small skier triggered avalanches also on NE aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 cm fell with the last 2 systems (more in the S and W and less in other parts of the region) with light to moderate S-SW winds creating soft slabs in the alpine and at treeline below ridgetops. It is expected that the bond between these slabs and the underlying surface will improve, however they will also gain propagation potential with the continuing settlement and forecasted moderate winds. In other words, they could be harder to trigger, but if triggered, they will generate bigger avalanches. The new snow is also sitting on a couple of weak layers; a suncrust on S facing slopes and on a surface hoar layer mostly found below treeline. The bond of the new snow with these type of layers usually takes longer to improve and is harder to predict. It is therefore important to keep monitoring their location and reactivity to ski and snowpack tests. The early January surface hoar layer down 40-60 cm also in the below treeline band is still a concern to professionals. It has been producing a variety of snowpack results but has not been reactive to skier traffic in a while.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
New storm slabs were formed with S-SW moderate winds in the alpine and at treeline on lee features. Soft slabs and small loose avalanches could also run easily on the weaker underlying surfaces in sheltered areas.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
A cautious approach is recommended on steep S slopes and sheltered terrain below treeline.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Jan 26th, 2013 2:00PM