Archived

Avalanche Forecast

May 3rd, 2014–May 4th, 2014

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

The snowpack is best described as "upside down" right now. Conditions will improve as it cools, but for now the warm snow is problematic at low elevations. Ski quality is probably pretty good at the upper elevations.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

More snow is on the way. The main front has passed, but our forecast still shows 6cm's over night with a few more coming starting tomorrow afternoon. The winds will be from all directions, but mostly light with the occasional gust in the alpine. Freezing levels will reach 2050m tomorrow. Snow depth at Burstall Pass is 226cm's and 135cm's at the road.

Avalanche Summary

None observed, however skies have been obscured. There has undoubtedly been avalanche activity on steeper alpine slopes.

Snowpack Summary

20cm's of new snow at Burstall Pass in the last 24hrs. This came in warm and gradually cooled as the storm progressed. We can expect there to be some moderate wind transport and new slabs in lee features. The moist snow underneath was insulated by the new snow so the storm snow bond will improve very quickly. In the meantime, this new storm snow/storm slab will likely be reactive until the snow temperature balances.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

This is still the main concern right now. The new snow is stressing the bond at the bottom layer which will make it slightly touchier and the midpack is still moist from all the rain. Some time is needed to renew the trust with this layer.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 6

Storm Slabs

Two slab concerns: At lower elevations the cohesive(warm) nature of the new snow is creating a slab, at upper elevations the wind has created storm slabs. The moist snow below will be a likely failure layer

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid paths that have not avalanched recently.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3