Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Moderate-heavy amounts of snowfall are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulations 15-25cm tonight, 15-20cm on Wednesday. Ridgetop winds from the West near 75km/hr overnight, tapering off to 40km/hr from the NW on Wednesday. Thursday may bring some flurries, but mainly dry, cooler conditions with the associated ridge. Freezing levels will remain at valley bottom. Friday brings light snowfall, and changing moderate outflow winds from the East.

One natural size 2.5-3 was reported from Mt. Rainy occurred in the evening with additional precipitation and warming. One size 1 skier triggered avalanche occurred on a SW aspect @ 1400m. Crown depth was 5-10cm, the width 20m, running 20m.This ran in the current storm snow. Reports of natural sluffing on steep terrain features. With forecast wind and snow, avalanche activity may increase.

Generally, up to 35 cm of new snow sits over a strong melt freeze crust that exists below 1000m on all aspects, and over wind-pressed powder on shaded alpine features. Facets and surface hoar have been found sandwiched between the newer snow and the old surfaces at treeline and below. This surface hoar seems to be more predominant in inland areas. Where it exists, this layer has started to become reactive under the new load and slab development. I suspect this will continue as the forecast snow and wind continues. Check out our Forecaster's Blog for some insight on incremental loading. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.